For too long, the UK and the West underappreciated how closely the Kremlin watches what our policies, actions and military posture say about our willingness – or otherwise – to confront Russian aggression.
When Mitt Romney challenged for the US presidency, Barack Obama mocked him live on television for identifying Russia as a geopolitical threat, declaring that “the 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back”.
The Kremlin’s conclusion was that they could push the boundaries – invade and occupy, blast civilian airliners out of the sky, murder people in European capitals, deploy radiological and chemical weapons on Britain’s streets, cut underwater cables – with little consequence.
As the new Strategic Defence Review makes clear, the 1980s foreign policy is well and truly back. In Sir Keir Starmer’s words: “We are moving to warfighting readiness as the central purpose of our armed forces.”
What will Putin make of the Strategic Defence Review?
The Government intends to provide “the ships” (and more) – a new submarine every 18 months via the Aukus alliance hammered out by Boris Johnson’s government, a “hybrid Royal Navy”, an increased domestic artillery manufacturing base and “world-leading drone capabilities and battlefield technology”.
Evidently the matter of “the money” is most contentious. The underpinning of the SDR is that defence spending will rise to 2.5 per cent of GDP, as Starmer promised, by 2027 – and that it must then rise to 3 per cent by 2034. The latter was “certain”, according to Healey mere days ago, but is now downgraded to an “ambition”, which the Prime Minister refuses to promise.
Even if we get a new submarine fleet, modern kit, and an increase in the number of armed forces personnel, Putin still doesn’t believe that we have the will to use it, and then it will all be for naught. He’ll continue to push at what he believes to be an open door, and then either he will get away with it again, breeding worse and greater aggression, or we will be compelled to call his bluff. Either outcome would be a humanitarian, defence and economic disaster.
square PATRICK COCKBURN Britain’s future is more uncertain than at any time since 1945
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Particularly if this state of “warfighting readiness” won’t be fully achieved until 2034, we should be doing all we can to communicate rising lethality and absolute resolve from day one.
From maritime drones which allowed them to defeat the Russian Black Sea fleet without a fleet of their own to the amazing drone operation over the weekend which inflicted the worst day for the Russian air force since the Second World War, all without risking any Ukrainian conventional aircraft, they hold vital insights on the future of warfare. As their ally, we should capitalise on their experience.
Mark Wallace is Chief Executive of Total Politics Group
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