ICYMI - JPMorgan forecasts US recession in late 2025 as Trump tariffs bite ...Middle East

Michael Feroli, the bank’s chief U.S. economist, anticipates a mild two-quarter contraction beginning in the third quarter. JPMorgan projects GDP will

shrink by 1.0% in Q3 and by 0.5% in Q4, marking a technical recession. For the full year, Feroli’s team sees U.S. economic output declining 0.3%.

The forecast comes amid rising concern that protectionist trade measures could disrupt supply chains, raise input costs, and weigh on consumer sentiment — all of which could reverse the momentum that has underpinned U.S. economic resilience in recent quarters.

JPMorgan’s view places it among the more bearish on Wall Street, with other major banks still split on whether the U.S. will manage a soft landing or face a downturn.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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