Credit Agricole anticipates the RBA will hold rates at this week’s meeting, with Australian inflation and activity data aligning with forecasts, supporting a continued hawkish stance relative to other G10 central banks. Despite stable inflation and moderate retail activity, the RBA is expected to maintain a neutral outlook, with rate cuts not likely until early 2025.Key Points:Inflation in Line with Forecasts: Trimmed mean inflation is at 3.5% YoY, aligning with RBA projections and showing a decrease from 4.0% YoY, reducing pressure for policy shifts.Moderate Consumption Growth: Retail sales adjusted for inflation rose 0.5% QoQ in Q3 but remain below the RBA’s 1.5% YoY forecast for H2 2024,
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