The US-Iran ceasefire is disintegrating as the US claims to have broken – least temporarily – the Iranian grip on the Strait of Hormuz, something which Iran says it will fight all-out to retain. Both countries know that the winner and loser in the US-Iran war will be determined largely by who has gained long-term control of this chokepoint for world energy supplies.
Either the shipping lane in and out of the Gulf is open under US military protection or it is not. The US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said today that “the lane is clear” because of operation “Project Freedom” with 1,550 vessels manned by 22,500 crew lining up to exit the Gulf where they have been since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.
Hegseth said the ceasefire was still in place and the US is “not looking for a fight”, but Iran “cannot be allowed to block innocent countries and their goods from an international waterway”. Yet the Iranian blockade of the Strait will only be ended if the US permanently deploys powerful air and naval forces to stop Iranian attacks on Gulf shipping using drones, missiles, mines and torpedoes. Confusingly, Hegseth said the operation was “temporary in duration”, suggesting that the US may not after all try to deprive Iran of its stranglehold on a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas exports.
“We are just getting started,” said the Speaker of the Iranian parliament and chief negotiator, Mohammad Ghalibaf, earlier in a post on X, suggesting Iran is still preparing its response to the US operation. It is probable that Tehran, along with the international shipping industry, is unclear if it is seeing a one-off US operation that leaves the strategic balance unchanged, or the opening move in the second phase of the war that was paused by a truce on 8 April.
Hostilities are so far well below the level seen then, with the US claiming that its military helicopters destroyed six small Iranian naval speed boats, though Iran says that there were only two of them and they were civilian vessels with five of those on board killed. Only nine ships have so far exited the Gulf, but Hegseth says that hundreds of others are lining up to join an exodus under “a red, white and blue dome”, guaranteeing their safety.
Both sides may be exaggerating their own strength and willpower, and underestimating that of their enemy. Also, neither of them wants to be seen as the aggressor and blamed for re-starting a full-scale war. But they want to show that they can escalate if needs be with, in the case of Iran, an Iranian drone or missile setting ablaze an oil refinery at Fujairah located on the coast of the United Arab Emirates. Pulling its punch a little, Iran says that it does not have “a plan” to resume bombardment of the Emirates.
Trump, who is still claiming military success in the war, evidently exaggerated the pressure his blockade of Iranian ports put on Tehran, at least for the next few months. Another wild card in the current crisis is that nobody knows to what degree Trump believes his own fantasy claims of victory. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was the most decisive influence on Trump in February, persuading Trump that a war against Iran could be won cheaply and speedily. He may still be telling Trump that Iran can be decisively defeated – or the President may have decided that Israel and the US have different goals.
The ceasefire in Lebanon is breaking down even faster than in the Gulf with Israeli strikes killing 110 people since last Thursday, along with 17 Israeli soldiers killed by Hezbollah.
Israel envisages something like a forever war with Iran. By way of contrast, Trump is eager to bring it to a successful end, aware that its vastly unpopularity in the US is damaging Republicans in the mid-term elections in November. Yet, he is still sticking to maximalist demands on the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear enrichment, terms that Iran will never accept.
The Iranians are suspicious that Trump may be poised for another surprise blow against them. “Based on current assessments, another military attack seems likely. [Trump’s] goals from the naval blockade haven’t been achieved,” an Iranian official told the US-based Drop Site News. “He can’t keep the blockade going for much longer. We think the US will focus on Hormuz, so military attacks and operations will likely expand along Iran’s coastline, along with a new wave of assassinations [against Iranian leaders] they may pursue jointly with Israel.”
The official added that Trump’s action “is primarily intended to provoke Iran into taking an initial step toward confrontation, thereby creating a pretext for escalation and enabling him to justify further military action in response to an Iranian [diplomatic] initiative.”
Even though Trump may not plan to resume the war, the ceasefire might easily collapse if an Iranian missile, drone or mine caused mass casualties on a US naval vessel. Having declared the Strait of Hormuz open, it will be difficult for the US administration to dial this back and allow Iran to resume full control.
For its part, Iran dare not lose this control, which was its great gain in the previous phase of the war and made it the strategic winner in the conflict so far, with a newly won capacity to wreck the world economy. It is not an advantage Tehran can afford to lose.
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