Two months ago, the Republican Party was headed to what looked like a historic wave election. The Democrats had spent months in disarray; their legislative agenda, stuck in the mud, looked unlikely to get unstuck before the midterms. Crises had bogged down the administration, from the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan to the Omicron Covid wave to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Joe Biden’s approval rating had been falling precipitously since August of last year—by mid-July it was lower than Donald Trump’s during the same period in his presidency, an ominous sign. And, to top it all off, inflation was at levels not seen in decades—and the economy appeared to be heading into recession.
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