Seiya Suzuki is arguably the best position player available in a weak class for bats. The 32-year-old outfielder has hit .269/.351/.472 over five seasons since making the jump from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He’s been a consistent offensive threat and is coming off a .270/.368/.473 showing with 26 home runs. Suzuki was one of the best players in the National League in the second half, batting .272/.392/.486 after the All-Star Break.
The righty-hitting Suzuki has been a little better against lefties over the course of his career, but he has an OPS north of .800 against pitchers of either handedness. He’s a patient hitter with league average contact skills and above-average bat speed. Suzuki’s exit velocities were down slightly this past season, but it didn’t show in his production. He remains a plus runner with a strong arm who grades as an above-average defender in right field.
It’s a well-rounded profile that has Suzuki and Randy Arozarena as the most proven bats on the open market. Suzuki has the bigger toolset and grades more highly defensively. Arozarena is a much more aggressive baserunner and posted big numbers despite playing half his games at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. Both players are entering their age-32 seasons and received qualifying offers that they’re sure to reject. They should do similarly well contractually; MLBTR ranked them back to back on our Top 50 free agents (fourth and fifth, respectively). We’re predicting Suzuki for a four-year, $105MM guarantee.
As we do with the top free agents every offseason, we’ll run through each team’s chances of making a run at Suzuki.
All payroll figures cited are from the MLBTR Payroll Tracker, courtesy of contributor Ethan Hullihen.
Known/Likely Suitors (listed alphabetically)
Blue Jays: It’s another offseason where the Blue Jays are being linked to seemingly every free agent of note. Suzuki is no exception, as Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reported that Toronto viewed him as a target before the offseason even began. The Jays can play at the top of the rotation market, add another leverage reliever, or pursue an impact bat. Second base and the corner outfield are their most obvious areas to address an offense that ranked last in the majors in both home runs and overall scoring.
Toronto ended this year with a competitive balance tax payroll around $317MM. That’s down to an estimated $233.75MM for the upcoming season. The Jays already have nine players signed to eight-figure contracts through at least 2028 (including $20MM+ annual commitments for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Dylan Cease, Andrés Giménez and José Berríos). At some point they’ll probably draw a line, but they haven’t given any indication that’s the case yet. They’ve also shown a willingness to sign qualified free agents, giving up draft capital for Cease and Anthony Santander in the last two offseasons. As luxury tax payors, they’d surrender their second and fifth-highest draft choices (plus $1MM in international signing bonus space) for another qualified free agent.
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