The Dodgers are in the mix for free agent Tarik Skubal but the framework of his eventual deal could be very important. Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that their interest would be contingent on Skubal being open to a short-term deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that Skubal has no interest in that kind of arrangement, which would seemingly work against the Dodgers in the bidding.
It’s not really a surprise to hear that the Dodgers are leaning this way. Though they have acquired a number of talented players over the years, they have a clear preference to avoid really long free agent deals. In the past decade, they have only twice gone longer than six years for a free agent, both under special circumstances. One was for Shohei Ohtani, the other for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Ohtani is a unicorn talent who got a ten-year deal with the Dodgers, with almost all of the money deferred. Yamamoto got a 12-year deal because he was unusually young, coming over from Japan ahead of his age-25 season.
Though it might feel like the Dodgers always sign the top players, they are often happy to let them go elsewhere when the bidding is strong. Juan Soto got 15 years from the Mets. Bryce Harper got 13 years from the Phillies and Trea Turner 11 from that same club. Gerrit Cole and Max Fried got their deals from the Yankees and Dylan Cease ended up with the Blue Jays.
In some of those cases, the Dodgers were involved but would only pounce if the player didn’t find a satisfactory long-term deal and became open to short-term offers. This approach has been described as “hanging around the backboard.”
It worked last year with Kyle Tucker. Though Tucker got some long-term offers, most notably from the Blue Jays, he discussed some short-term deals with the Mets and Dodgers. Both clubs were offering huge average annual values in order to prevent the deal from extending too far into the future. The Dodgers eventually won out by giving Tucker a $240MM guarantee over four years, with opt-outs after year two and three.
Woo’s reporting suggests that the Dodgers will take a similar approach to Skubal this winter. They will certainly be involved but probably won’t win the bidding if Skubal gets long-term offers he likes. In fact, Woo suggests the Dodgers aren’t likely to make a lucrative long-term offer to anybody, Skubal or otherwise. Woo’s report connects that stance to the ongoing collective bargaining negotiations.
Baseball’s economic future is unknown. The league is pushing a salary cap, something the players oppose. It’s unclear how it will play out in the end but Woo suggests the Dodgers would prefer to avoid long-term arrangements while they wait to see what the new CBA looks like. There’s also the matter of owner Mark Walter, who has been selling off various assets amid financial and legal turmoil. Despite that situation, Woo suggests the Dodgers are still positioned to offer Skubal a strong offer in terms of average annual value.
MLBTR predicted Skubal to land a nine-year deal with a $425MM guarantee. Other outlets have put out comparable predictions. Passan’s reporting suggests Skubal will be targeting that long-term arrangement, so perhaps there is an opening for a club other than the Dodgers to swoop in.
It was reported this week that the Mets would be meeting with Skubal next week, with the lefty hoping to sign a deal before the lockout begins on December 2. Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes later said that he expects the Dodgers to meet with Skubal soon as well. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press then reported that the Mets, Dodgers, Padres and three mystery teams would be meeting with Skubal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the Blue Jays would meet with Skubal as well, presumably being one of those three mystery clubs.
Time will tell where the bidding goes. If any of those clubs are more willing than the Dodgers to go long term, that could help them emerge victorious. The Jays went to seven years to sign Cease last winter and have rotation needs going into next season. They have also been involved with a number of other marquee free agents in recent years, including Ohtani and Soto.
The Padres have been very aggressive in pursuing top names. They signed Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and others to huge deals. They have dialed back spending since Peter Seidler’s passing in 2023 but the Seidler family sold the club to José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones this year. There have been some rumors indicating the ownership change could allow them to spend aggressively once again. They certainly need rotation help, as basically all of their starters just became free agents.
The Mets, as mentioned, went to 15 years to sign Soto. President of baseball operations David Stearns has been fairly conservative in signing pitchers. He has never given a free agent arm a deal longer than three years, including his time running the Mets and the Brewers. Perhaps now would be a time to break that pattern. He has far greater spending capacity with the Mets than he did with the Brewers and the rotation clearly needs help.
It’s also possible that owner Steve Cohen greenlights a big Skubal deal even if Stearns isn’t keen. It has been suggested that Cohen was directly involved with agent Scott Boras with the Soto deal. Cohen and Boras also worked out a $315MM deal for Carlos Correa a few years ago, though that ultimately fell apart in relation to Correa’s physical examination. Skubal is also represented by Boras, so perhaps the relationship with Cohen could again be important.
Perhaps further reporting will reveal who the mystery clubs are. Passan’s column says the Red Sox and White Sox aren’t involved. The Red Sox have been big spenders in the past but it’s been over a decade since they signed one of the top free agents available. They have signed Trevor Story, Alex Bregman and Ranger Suarez but those three deals combined add up to $390MM, likely less than what Skubal could command alone. Rob Bradford of WEEI reports that the Sox appear to be out on Freddy Peralta as well, so perhaps they won’t make any kind of big splash on the rotaiton.
The White Sox are a fun dark horse pick for Skubal because they play in a big market, need pitching and have almost nothing on the books but they have never given a player a guarantee larger than $75MM.
Photo courtesy of Katie Stratman, Imagn Images
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