ROCHESTER, N.Y. – As a surface low-pressure system meanders off the Northeast coast Saturday evening, heavier rain showers stay in central and downstate New York. Light showers will persist in the greater Rochester area through the evening, lessening in coverage overnight. These showers will transition to lake effect showers mostly south and east of Rochester through Saturday night as this system continues to wrap around moisture and cooler air as it pulls off the Northeast coast. Mostly cloudy skies and early overnight showers will keep temperatures in the low-40s for Rochester and upper 30s for higher elevations. Breezy winds are expected out of the northwest through Saturday night between 10 to 15 mph with some gusts between 15 to 25 mph.
Widespread moisture from this system will start to move off east through Sunday morning, but may support a few light lake-enhanced showers especially east of Rochester. The later morning and early afternoon hours of Sunday should stay mainly dry, but it will be a little windy. Winds will continue to gust out of the west/southwest up to 35 mph with sustained winds for Rochester staying mainly between 10 to 20 mph. Limited sunshine will allow temperatures to approach the mid-50s Sunday afternoon.
Rain will then likely start to move in late Sunday afternoon and evening as another tight area of low pressure (the “clipper”) descends across Ontario and Quebec Sunday night through Monday morning. Rain chances continue to increase Sunday night and into Monday morning as this system’s center moves to our north across upstate New York. This moisture will likely keep Sunday night lows in the low 40s with a forecasted overnight low of 44 degrees for Rochester. Monday’s high temperatures are expected to only reach the upper 40s to low 50s with rain showers diminishing later in the morning.
From late Monday through mid-week, a drier and milder trend takes over. A small, 25% chance of rain showers lingers through Tuesday and Wednesday, as a couple clippers pass just to our north across Quebec and Canada. These may deliver a few light showers at times, but the first half of the week should remain mostly dry with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. The same pattern that will produce these clippers will start to intensify into Thursday and emerge into a larger area of low pressure. This system will likely bring us higher chances of rain showers starting Thursday with some snow mixed in starting Thursday night. Some data hints at this being our first accumulating snowfall event, but climate history shows the most likely scenario would be rain Thursday through Friday for most, with some snow and frozen precipitation in higher elevations. This is a developing weather system, so changes are inevitable through this week. Stay tuned for more updates.
First Alert Weather: Tracking a few lake effect showers through Sunday morning and a couple clippers to start out the week WHEC.com.
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