The house of Trump is collapsing ...Middle East

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The house of Trump is collapsing

The US midterm elections turned out to be more of a massacre than a defeat for the Republican Party – and an across-the-board rejection of Donald Trump and his toxic version of authoritarian populism. 

In state after state, from Iowa to Texas to South Carolina, long-standing Republican bastions were stormed by triumphant Democrats in a victory with scarcely any precedent in its significance in American history. In exit polls, anti-Trump voters confirmed that high prices, falling living standards, the Trumpian threat to American democracy and the war against Iran were all crucial motivations in energising them to vote for the Democrats.

    Trump remains in the White House for another two years, and is seeking desperately to distance himself from the defeat. “I wasn’t on the ballot,” he claimed absurdly, “and if I was we would have won.” 

    But it was the President himself who repeatedly and counterproductively urged voters to imagine his name was indeed on the ballot paper – and very many did just that as they voted for Democratic candidates. He may still have core Republican support, but for the first time he has become a vote loser for the Republicans – and in the ruthless world of American politics his real power is already ebbing, whatever his nominal authority.

    As it became clear that the Republicans had suffered a humiliating rout, Trump was already giving interviews to news outlets uttering soft words and promising co-operation with the incoming Democratic majority in Congress. He needs to show he is still the decision-maker supreme in American politics, and avoid being labelled as a lame duck. 

    But nobody in American politics doubts that a fight of great ferocity will shortly begin as the Democrats attack Trumpism on multiple fronts and challenge his ability to rule by executive order, as he has largely done over the last two years.

    This battle might erupt immediately if he starts a third round of his war with Iran in alliance with Israel. He says he does not intend to do so for now, though such reassurances have proved a dead letter in the past. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Trump in a public phone call last week that “we have a job to finish [against Iran]”. But this unpopular and unsuccessful war played such a pivotal role in the Republican downfall on Tuesday that it will be difficult to resume in the face of public hostility. 

    Commentators suggest that Trump may lash out abroad because of his political frustration at home, yet the huge scale of the Republican wipeout, which was to a great extent a referendum on the President himself, robs him of legitimacy in making war, or carrying out any other major initiative at home and abroad.

    Trump seems fully conscious that his attack on Iran on 28 February repelled voters. “I think a part of it was Iran,” he told Fox News. On X, his Vice President JD Vance was more blunt: “The reason we lost is the war.”  

    The Democrats will move as fast as they can to attack, and where possible dismantle, different features of Trumpism. This will include investigating and defunding the paramilitary ICE, notorious for persecuting, incarcerating and deporting members of Hispanic/Latino communities (18.5 per cent of the US population) whose voters understandably deserted Republicans en masse. 

    The Democrats will certainly seek to impeach Trump, but they may also seek to impeach his chief lieutenants, such as Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy. They do not have to stop there, but could impeach justices on the Supreme Court who have done so much to turn a far-right Republican agenda into the law of the land. Judges and lower courts that have already done what they could to restrict Trump’s abuse of power will be strengthened.

    The separation of powers – intended to be at the heart of American democracy but recently in abeyance – will be back in business. The power of Congress to investigate and publicise will most likely be used against Trump enablers like trillionaire Elon Musk. In the Texas Senate race, the winning Democrat, James Talarico, focused more of his fiery attacks on Musk, who donated $224m to Republicans in the state, than on the Republican candidate. 

    Trump sought to move on from the scandal revolving around child abuser Jeffrey Epstein, with Democrat representatives alleging that the Justice Department has released only half the papers relating to Epstein. Amid widespread public suspicion of a cover-up, the Democrats will ensure the case has maximum transparency. Accusations of corruption against Trump and his associates cut through with voters during the campaign and will be a focus of congressional attention. 

    How will Trump respond to this? Many of his old advantages, notably dismal Democratic leadership, have at least partially disappeared. The new wave of victorious Democratic lawmakers are abler and more combative than the preceding generation – such as uninspiring Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer – who were heavily criticised for feeble resistance to Trump. Newer leaders like Talarico in Texas and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan have only reached the Senate after surviving ferocious personal attacks funded by mega-donors, so they are already battle-hardened politicians who detest Trump as the greatest enemy of American democracy. They are not going to be merciful.

    Previous elections lost by Democrats in 2016 and 2024 saw bitter arguments between the left and right of the party over who waw to blame. Doubtless these intra-party feuds will persist: El-Sayed has already seen his defeated rival in the Democratic primary, Haley Stevens, spectacularly defecting to the Republicans on the eve of the poll. Yet a political victory of historic proportions will not provoke the recriminations that are inevitable after a loss.

    By way of contrast, a shattered Republican Party will be looking for somebody to blame for their electoral calamity – and accusing fingers are already pointing at Trump as the pied piper who led them to their doom. 

    In the last few years, he has kept an iron grip on his party as he repeatedly delivered victory and crushed dissent. But the coalition that twice sent him to the White House has now disintegrated. Though he may still enjoy the devotion of fanatic Maga loyalists, the midterms showed that this is not nearly enough. The house that Trump built is falling apart before our eyes.

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