Bournemouth made an inauspicious start to the 2026-27 Premier League season, but Marco Rose was always looking at the bigger picture. His instincts were seemingly on the money.
It would’ve been easy, understandable even, for Bournemouth fans to be feeling down after the first six matchdays of the 2026-27 Premier League season, worried about what the rest of the campaign might have in store.
Their revered head coach, Andoni Iraola, had left in the summer, and his replacement, Marco Rose, hadn’t got off to a great start. Three defeats and three draws was all they had to show from their first six league matches, and whispers about Rose’s future had begun in the media.
But Bournemouth fans also knew better than most that it can sometimes take a while for new ideas and methods to yield positive results. After all, Iraola didn’t win any of his first nine Premier League games in charge of the club, and he ended up having a remarkable impact on the south coast.
Still, the outlook wasn’t great after Bournemouth were hammered 5-1 by Chelsea on MD6. In some cases, that might’ve been enough to cause their form to really implode, but Rose maintained his levelheadedness.
He’d been adamant until that point that Bournemouth’s performances had been far better than results suggested.
“It’s about results in this level. But performance-wise, I see a lot of good things,” he said.
Rose was much less understanding after the hammering at Stamford Bridge, but again there were still reasons to think the result was harsh on the Cherries.
Chelsea’s five goals came from just 1.1 expected goals (xG). The standard of their finishing was incredibly high at times, with Jordan Henderson scoring twice from outside the box (one a free-kick) and João Pedro rifling emphatically into the roof of the net from a Pedro Neto cut-back. And Morgan Rogers’ effort was helped by a deflection.
Bournemouth actually created opportunities with a greater xG total (1.38) than their hosts, and yet they ended up on the end of a hiding.
The one-sided manner of the result was something of a novelty, but the overriding sense that Bournemouth had at the very least been a little unlucky was familiar. Not much had gone their way over the five matchdays before that.
In their MD1 defeat at Manchester City, Bournemouth led 1-0 until the 84th minute, before ultimately losing 2-1.
On MD2, they were denied by a 90th-minute equaliser in a 1-1 draw with Everton, with James Tarkowski’s goal following a mix-up that saw two Bournemouth players challenge each other for an aerial duel in their own box.
“As a coach, you evaluate the performance as well [as the result], and in most phases of the game it was really good,” Rose said. “I don’t want to blame anyone because I saw so many positive things.”
Then, an 88th-minute leveller rescued Newcastle a 2-2 draw from 2-0 down at St. James’ Park on MD3. For Bournemouth, it was a result that stung even more given Evanilson and Marcus Tavernier each wasted glorious chances at 1-0. The goal they scored to go 2-0 probably should’ve put them 3-0 to the good.
And on MD4, Bournemouth led twice in the 2-2 draw with Brentford, in which both their concessions came following individual errors. The first saw Adrien Truffert turn into trouble just outside the box; the second came after Djordje Petrovic passed the ball straight to Kevin Schade.
Rose continued to focus on the positives. There was an acceptance that results needed to catch up eventually, though he liked a lot of what he was watching.
“I’m really happy with the confidence the lads came here today to take the three points,” he said after the Newcastle draw.
Even after the loss to Liverpool on MD5 left them with just three points from a possible 15, Rose cut an optimistic figure, saying: “We played a good game against Liverpool. They had some days more to recover, and I think we looked fit, even at the end. We were the team that went for a goal.”
Across their first six matches, Bournemouth won the ‘xG battle’ four times. That obviously doesn’t count for much in real terms, but it does reflect that they were creating more high-value opportunities than their opponents. Certainly, their position of 18th in the table after MD6 wasn’t a clear reflection of their performances. That said, points do still have to be earned.
“We can see the table. Now it’s up to us to prove and show we can handle the situation,” Rose challenged his players after the Chelsea loss.
We can use expected points (xPts) to support the idea that Bournemouth’s position was false. Our xPts model uses xG data from each match to calculate how games ‘deserved’ to finish based on the quality and quantity of chances at each end. It simulates the number of goals each team scored in the match based on the chances they created and then simulates the match 10,000 times to work out how often the game is won, lost and drawn. Teams are then awarded between zero and three xPts based on the proportion they win, draw and lose.
Although Bournemouth were in the relegation zone with just three points, as you can see, their 8.4 xPts put them comfortably in mid-table.
Ithiel Piñero / Data AnalystRose’s optimistic appraisals shouldn’t be overlooked as standard post-match managerial guff either. There’s an argument his positivity and clarity played a big role in helping the Bournemouth players appreciate they were on the right track even when results were underwhelming. The worry was the team could lose confidence and continue to sink, but hindsight suggests the coach did well to mitigate such a threat.
Since the loss to Chelsea, Bournemouth have played six and won six in all competitions. They’ve scored 16 goals from 16.4 xG and allowed their opponents chances worth just 0.81 xG on average – and, crucially, Henderson’s free-kick at Stamford Bridge was the last goal they conceded.
They’ve seen off Sturm Graz and Milan in the Europa League, Aston Villa in the EFL Cup, and Sunderland, Manchester United and Leeds in the Premier League.
It’s probably fair to say their fixture list has been slightly kinder given they played City, Newcastle, Liverpool and Chelsea – three of which were away – during their first six Premier League outings. But at the same time, Milan and Leeds both made decent starts to the season, Villa have been resurgent of late, and wins at Old Trafford can never be taken for granted.
The outlook for Bournemouth is now considerably different in the Premier League. Those three wins have lifted them to eighth in the real table, and because their recent victories have been so comprehensive, they’ve absolutely shot up the xPts table as well.
Only Arsenal (18.2), Man City (17.1) and Nottingham Forest (15.5) can better Bournemouth’s 15.4 xPts over the full season to date.
Ithiel Piñero / Data AnalystIt’s been an impressive transformation. Rose isn’t about to try and convince anyone that it’s all down to some genius tactical tweaks he’s made, though.
“I would love to say I’m a magician and I changed some good stuff, but sometimes it’s just about maybe getting this kind of experience, and then if you react well that’s always the most important thing,” he mused ahead of the Leeds win.
“You can do mistakes, you can lose, you can have a bad day, but every time in life the reaction is the most important thing on wins, on losses, in every situation, and I think we showed the good reaction.
“We didn’t lack much, and now we just have the last five or six per cent in everything. Sometimes you can’t explain it; we just showed the right reaction.”
Marcus Tavernier (2.02). Tavernier (0.34) and Evanilson (0.20) rank first and seventh respectively for average non-penalty xG per shot (5+ shots) over the same period.
So, attackers are finding form, they’ve done a good job of limiting their opposition’s flow of high-quality chances – and their upcoming fixture list looks kind.
Over the next five matchdays, only Coventry City and Aston Villa are deemed to have more straightforward schedules than Bournemouth according to the Opta Power Rankings. Their climb could yet continue.
Bournemouth’s surge up the table shows how quickly a club’s fortunes can change, and it’s evidence of how patience can be rewarded when it might be easier to panic.
Rose may not feel as though he’s changed much, but ensuring his team retained belief when heads might have dropped is as valuable as any tactical alteration.
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Bournemouth Refused to Panic, Now Marco Rose’s Cherries Are Blossoming Opta Analyst.
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