Vladimir Putin may be basking in his triumph in last weekend’s sham parliamentary elections, but it is arguably the local elections, which have largely flown under the radar, that say the most about the state of his regime.
Much of the real work of running the country on Putin’s behalf is done at the local level, by the 89 governors and leaders of the constituent regions of Russia. The system depends on them, from meeting their targets for volunteers in the war in Ukraine to keeping the people under control.
The results of the eight local races were in no way surprising, but illustrate the realities behind the Kremlin’s synthetic election wins.
In the main, incumbents in local races held their seats. Facing growing dissatisfaction from elites and the masses alike, Putin is ever more averse to churn, and although his political managers are trying to get him to contemplate a wider reshuffle of the elite – maybe even a new prime minister – he is reluctant.
He doesn’t know the next generation of aspiring leaders, doesn’t trust whom he doesn’t know, and in general the septuagenarian tsar would rather not even think about any generational transitions.
But his increasingly fossilised allies are looking desperately for a new basis of support, even as they grow old in office. One approach to this in the State Duma elections was getting veterans to stand as candidates, reflecting Putin’s apparent belief that the veterans of his “special military operation” in Ukraine can become his “new elite”.
Members of a local electoral commission count votes after the closure of a polling station during Russia’s three-day parliamentary election in the town of Podolsk near Moscow last weekend (Photo: Ramil Sitdikov/Reuters)Similarly, in the election for leader of the Belgorod region, on the Ukrainian border, Major General Alexander Shuvaev was confirmed in place, having been acting governor since May.
An ex-paratrooper and Hero of Russia, Shuvaev nonetheless ended up downplaying his military background. He ditched his camouflage jacket and soldier’s demeanour for civilian suits, glasses that would not look out of place on Andy Burnham and technocratic rhetoric about attracting inward investment and empowering local communities.
Opinion polling had decisively warned him that playing the “veteran card” would work against him, alienating a public that is tired of the war.
In Chechnya, a virtual state-within-a-state, the ailing warlord Ramzan Kadyrov awarded himself re-election with a North Korean-style 99.85 per cent of the vote – up from his modest 99.73 per cent in 2021.
Fearful of another Chechen rebellion, the Kremlin has long given Kadyrov a free hand, but his overt fakery turned the whole exercise into an obvious farce.
All these leaders stood as candidates for Putin’s party, United Russia ticket.
The only exception was in Ulyanovsk Region, where incumbent Alexei Russkikh held on for the Communists. Rather than some kind of blow for the opposition, it demonstrates the cosy backroom deals which keep this fake pluralism working. United Russia chose not to run a candidate against him, to keep the Communists happy as they swept the rest of the board.
As a Russian political journalist told The i Paper: “All the elections were rigged, but it’s the local ones that might actually matter.”
Mathematical modelling supports the notion that the national elections, which purportedly saw United Russia win an absolute majority in the State Duma, the parliament, were heavily manipulated.
The irony is that the Duma has become all but irrelevant. The Communists, the ultra-nationalist Liberal Democrats, and the other major “opposition” parties are all there to maintain a façade of pluralism. When push comes to shove, they vote the Kremlin’s way.
Meanwhile, local leaders who do well can become regional kingpins or make the jump to ministerial positions in Moscow. If not, they face the sack or investigations into their corrupt dealings. Everyone at that rank, after all, is involved in embezzlement and clientelism; the only question is whose shenanigans the government investigates.
Ultimately, these elections appear to show a leadership that is unassailable, but expose the cracks. The Kremlin is still engaged in corruption spin, and still has to make behind-the-scenes deals to hang on to power.
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