Endrick to Arsenal: Will shock Real Madrid January transfer happen? Football Whispers Index score ...Middle East

Arsenal are circling Endrick again, weeks after Fabrizio Romano shut the door on a summer move, because the 20-year-old's situation at Real Madrid has not improved by a single minute of La Liga football.

TEAMtalk reported on 19 September that Arsenal remain in contact with the player's camp and with Real Madrid over a potential January deal, while

The Athletic confirmed a review of Endrick's role is planned before the winter window opens.

The question is whether the gap between Arsenal's interest and Real Madrid's willingness to sell can close in the space of three months.

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Endrick to Arsenal rated ‘Possible'

The Football Whispers Index scores every transfer rumour across five weighted factors. Read how it works here.

Endrick to Arsenal

The score lands at 64, one point below the Likely threshold, and the reason it sits there rather than higher is straightforward: the player does not want to leave, and the selling club does not want to sell.

Everything else in the model leans towards this deal making sense, and that is what makes the rumour worth tracking rather than dismissing.

Arsenal can afford Endrick comfortably, they have a position that could open up if Viktor Gyokeres departs, the player would get more football at the Emirates than he is getting at the Bernabeu, and the age profile is exactly right for a club that has built its squad around players in or approaching their mid-twenties.

Financial viability

Arsenal's revenue crossed €822m in 2024-25, putting a €60m fee at under 8% of annual turnover, well within the range the club has operated in for recent signings like Declan Rice, Gyokeres and Bruno Guimaraes.

The wage side is even simpler: Endrick earns less than €4.2m a year in fixed salary at Real Madrid, which means Arsenal could comfortably triple his money and still sit below what Gyokeres currently takes home at £220,000 a week.

Where the deal gets harder is the contract: four years remaining until June 2030 gives Real Madrid no reason to accept a penny below what they paid, and the €60m initial fee they handed Palmeiras in 2024 is the floor, not the ceiling.

A loan structure, which The Athletic have reported Real Madrid are considering, would sidestep this entirely, but it would also mean Arsenal invest a window and squad slot in a player they might have to return to the Bernabeu in six months.

Buying club need

Kai Havertz has started every Premier League game this season at centre forward, and it is his position now. The 2025-26 campaign ended with Havertz ahead of Gyokeres in the knockout rounds of the Champions League, and Mikel Arteta has not reversed that call.

Gyokeres, who scored 21 goals in all competitions last season as Arsenal won the title, has played 29 minutes of Premier League football in 2026-27 and was an unused substitute against both Coventry and Sunderland.

CaughtOffside reported on 20 September that his representatives are already in talks with AC Milan, Juventus, Al Ahli and Al Ittihad, and David Ornstein has hinted that Arsenal could move for a forward in January.

If Gyokeres goes, the need for a striker behind Havertz becomes obvious and urgent, and Endrick's profile fits the recruitment template Arsenal have built around players who are 20 to 24 and on an upward trajectory.

Player motivation

The football case for Endrick to move is overwhelming: he has played four minutes all season, he is behind Kylian Mbappe and a summer signing from Levante in the pecking order, and his career is at the stage where he needs to play 30 to 40 matches a year, not four minutes in a 2-3 win at Elche.

Arsenal, by contrast, rank first in the world on Opta's power rankings, won the Premier League last season, and would give him a genuine pathway to regular football either as Havertz's rotation partner or, if Gyokeres leaves, as a direct competitor for the starting shirt.

The problem is that Endrick does not appear to see it that way yet.

Romano was unequivocal on 28 August: Endrick has no intention to leave, Real Madrid's management and Jose Mourinho wanted him to stay, and Arsenal were not going to approach a player who was not on the market.

Three weeks on, the landscape has shifted slightly: TEAMtalk's Graeme Bailey reported on 19 September that Endrick's representatives plan to meet Real Madrid during the international break to discuss his development and his role, and there is a growing sense that his patience with four minutes of league football is not unlimited.

Selling club incentive

This is the pillar that holds the score down, and it should, because Real Madrid have no reason to do anything they do not want to do.

They generated €1.185 billion in revenue last season, carry €12m in net debt, and have a president, a board and a manager who all explicitly decided in August that Endrick was not leaving.

What has changed since then is not the finances but the football reality: the signing of Carlos Espi from Levante pushed Endrick to third in the striking queue, and four matchdays into the season he has been used for four minutes, all of them in a game Real Madrid were already winning comfortably at Elche.

The Athletic's report that a review is planned before January is the first crack in a position that was airtight a month ago, and while a loan rather than a permanent sale remains the more likely outcome if anything happens, the fact that Real Madrid are now willing to assess the situation at all marks a shift in their thinking.

Market momentum

The sourcing for this rumour is mid-tier and building, not top-tier and confirmed.

TEAMtalk's Graeme Bailey has been the primary driver of the January link, reporting on 19 September that Arsenal are in active contact with both Real Madrid and Endrick's representatives, and he has a track record of getting to stories early in Premier League transfer cycles.

talkSPORT independently reported Arsenal's late-August exploratory talks, and The Athletic confirmed that a January review is planned from Real Madrid's side, which adds credibility to the idea that something is stirring even if no deal is close.

Set against that, Romano was emphatic on his YouTube channel in late August that the Arsenal interest was not real at the time, telling viewers that “Arsenal are not stupid” and that they would never approach a player who was explicitly not on the market.

By 17 September, though, Romano himself acknowledged that clubs would be ready to move if Endrick eventually wants a change, a meaningful softening from the hard “zero chances” line he held three weeks earlier.

The competition is also worth noting: Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City, Tottenham, Aston Villa and Fulham have all been named by TEAMtalk as interested in Endrick for 2027, with CaughtOffside reporting that Man Utd are preparing a €60-70m bid of their own.

Endrick to Arsenal: Will or won't it happen?

This is a rumour being driven by circumstance rather than by any party pushing hard for it to happen.

Arsenal need a forward if Gyokeres leaves, Endrick needs football, and Real Madrid are running out of ways to justify blocking a 20-year-old's development while keeping him on the bench behind two players who are clearly ahead of him.

The international break will be decisive: if Endrick's camp come out of their meeting with Real Madrid reassured and with a clearer pathway to minutes, the January story dies and the score drops into Unlikely, but if the meeting produces frustration and the minutes do not follow, the score moves the other way, and quickly.

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