Using the Opta projection model, we look at the win-out probabilities of unbeaten FCS football teams through four weeks of the 2026 season.
Coaches and players are always talking about taking the season one game at a time and not looking ahead.
Maybe they do, maybe not.
Either way, that doesn’t mean everybody else can’t look down the schedule and anticipate what’s could happen with this game or that game. Or all of them.
With a bunch of FCS football teams enjoying Septembers to remember, it’s possible some will be playing for a perfect regular season on the final full day of the regular season Nov. 21.
With the help of Opta’s AI predictive model, we can learn the likelihood of that occurring. The supercomputer simulates the season thousands of times to determine a win-out probability of every FCS team. (All 128 FCS win-out probabilities)
At least one FCS team has posted a perfect regular season in every full fall season (not 2020) since 2013.4-0 Record
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll Ranking: 7 Regular-Season Games Remaining (Next): 8 (Saturday at Penn) Opta Win-Out Probability: 47.9% Notable: Within the bulked-up Patriot League, the Mountain Hawks still must face Villanova, Richmond and Lafayette on the road. But they’ve won 21 straight regular-season games.Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll Ranking: 12 Regular-Season Games Remaining (Next): 8 (Saturday vs. Northeastern State) Opta Win-Out Probability: 43.6% Notable: SFA, which is 4-0 for the first time since 2004, went unbeaten in the Southland Conference last season.Montana State Bobcats
Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll Ranking: 1 Regular-Season Games Remaining (Next): 8 (Saturday vs. Northern Arizona) Opta Win-Out Probability: 19.4% Notable: An FBS win (Nevada) is out of the way for the defending FCS champion Bobcats, who are riding an FCS active-high 18-game winning streak. They’re hosting rival Montana in this year’s Brawl of the Wild.Illinois State Redbirds
Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll Ranking: 5 Regular-Season Games Remaining (Next): 8 (Saturday at Northern Iowa) Opta Win-Out Probability: 11.6% Notable: The Redbirds won at FBS member Northern Illinois as part of their 11-game road winning streak. They’re 4-0 for the first time since 2017.Tarleton State Texans
Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll Ranking: 4 Regular-Season Games Remaining (Next): 8 (Oct. 3 vs. Chicago State) Opta Win-Out Probability: 9.3% Notable: The Texans, one of six FCS teams with an FBS win this season, have to face Austin Peay on the road but get Abilene Christian (which has beaten them in four of their five Division I matchups) at home.South Carolina State Bulldogs
Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll Ranking: 18 Regular-Season Games Remaining (Next): 8 (Saturday at Bethune-Cookman) Opta Win-Out Probability: 3.3% Notable: The reigning MEAC, Celebration Bowl and HBCU national champion has a 12-game winning streak – second-longest in the FCS to Montana State.3-0 Record
Jackson State Tigers
Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll Ranking: NR Regular-Season Games Remaining (Next): 8 (Saturday vs. Southern) Opta Win-Out Probability: 11.6% Notable: Having played an easy nonconference schedule, the Tigers face tough road games in the SWAC against Grambling State (which has defeated JSU each of the past two seasons), Bethune-Cookman, Alabama State and Alcorn State.Idaho State Bengals
Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll Ranking: 16 Regular-Season Games Remaining (Next): 9 (Saturday at Southern Utah) Opta Win-Out Probability: 13.2% Notable: The Bengals, who are seeking their first FCS playoff bid since 1983, open November with back-to-back games against Montana State (home) and Montana (road).Dayton Flyers
Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll Ranking: NR Regular-Season Games Remaining (Next): 8 (Oct. 3 at Drake) Opta Win-Out Probability: 6.1% Notable: The Flyers have played only one FCS program (Eastern Kentucky) in its first 3-0 start since 2015. After a bye, they open their Pioneer Football League schedule at three-time defending champion Drake.Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll Ranking: 13 Regular-Season Games Remaining (Next): 9 (Saturday at Wofford) Opta Win-Out Probability: 0.6% Notable: The first-year Southern Conference member appears to be the team to beat in a competitive race, but the Golden Eagles’ win-out probability is low due to their Nov. 21 game against Mississippi State.1-0 Record
Ivy League teams began their 10-game season on Saturday. Five of them opened with non-league wins, but only one can finish with a perfect regular season due to their upcoming round-robin league schedule.
Those five win-out probabilities in descending order: the No. 25 Harvard Crimson (2.7%), No. 19 Yale Bulldogs (0.7%), Penn Quakers (0.1), Columbia Lions (
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