Another week, a few more pieces of the SEC puzzle grow clearer.
Teams might have to take things one week at a time, but we’re always focused on the end game. Here’s the rundown on where we see the teams of the SEC ending the regular season, based on what we’ve seen so far and what the path ahead looks like.
The people who said getting there was half the fun probably weren’t thinking about the College Football Playoff.
Alabama (2-0, beat Kentucky 45-17): 10-2
The Alabama Crimson Tide looked very human for about 2.5 quarters and then the light turned on (or off for Kentucky). The story of the season is still going to be the 4-game run of Georgia, at Tennessee, Texas A&M, and at LSU. We’ll take the Tide to get there at 5-0 and this looked more like a team that can split the 4 and earn a CFP spot than not.
Arkansas (1-1, lost to Utah 43-10): 2-10
Brutal Week 2 will feed into a tough schedule. Tulsa at home on September 26 is the best shot at a win, but the most winnable league game (Vanderbilt) is on the road. Ryan Silverfield is going to have a long first season.
Auburn (2-0, beat Southern Miss 43-8): 7-5
This was a terrible opponent, but Auburn’s taking care of business puts the Tigers in good position against Vandy, Arkansas, and Samford. Two more wins (Florida at home and Mississippi State on the road, maybe?) makes 7 wins look viable for Auburn. Speaking of Florida, big game for both teams to prove some bona fides under their new leaders this coming week.
Florida (2-0, beat Campbell 52-3): 7-5
As for the Florida Gators, the next 3 weeks look key. Even at home, Ole Miss seems like more than a handful. This makes the road games at Auburn and Mizzou both critical. A Florida team that goes 1-2 in the next 3 weeks can still get to 6-7 wins. One that goes 2-1 looks likely to win 8 games, but one that goes 0-3 isn’t going to get to a bowl.
Prediction Markets Florida vs Auburn Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Florida 56% Auburn 44% PredictGeorgia (2-0, beat WKU 70-20): 11-1
There’s been nothing not to like so far with the Georgia Bulldogs. The game at Bama on October 10 looks pretty interesting for both teams. But there aren’t too many teams on the slate that look capable of challenging Georgia, much less beating it.
Kentucky (1-1, lost to Alabama 45-17): 4-8
Kentucky looked great for about 2.5 quarters and then learned that Alabama was very different than Youngstown State. Will Stein‘s team can’t let the opponents’ momentum snowball like it did for Bama. But the schedule leaves Kentucky little room for growing pains.
LSU (2-0, beat Louisiana Tech 45-14): 10-2
LSU faces a moment of truth. Win in Oxford and this looks like a CFP squad. Lose in Oxford, and it looks like a 7-5 or 8-4 team. Texas A&M, Alabama, and Texas all have to come to LSU. But we haven’t really seen LSU play a good team yet… so all eyes go to Oxford.
Prediction Markets LSU vs. Ole Miss Winner? Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi LSU 59% Ole Miss 42% PredictMississippi State (2-0, beat Minnesota 38-13): 6-6
Mississippi State picked up a meaningful win and needs to win 1 of the next 2 to make a bowl game viable. Vandy and Tennessee Tech are ahead so a third September win would help us pick the Bulldogs to pull a minor surprise and get Jeff Lebby to a bowl.
Missouri (2-0, beat Kansas 38-21): 7-5
The Missouri Tigers may well start 5-0, in which case, we’re probably looking at 8 wins, maybe even 9. Troy in Week 3 won’t tell much, but then on the road in Starkville and at home against Florida should clarify if we’re vastly underrating the Tigers or if they’re going to hang closer to .500 than the CFP.
Oklahoma (1-1, lost to Michigan 17-10): 7-5
The schedule isn’t working for the Sooners here. Yes, New Mexico should be an easy win, but following that with at Georgia and home against Texas leaves Oklahoma likely to start 2-3. Michigan may have unmasked an offense that doesn’t come up big when the chips are down.
Ole Miss (2-0, beat Charlotte 41-9): 8-4
We might have been a little too hard on the Ole Miss Rebels. We’ve moved them back up a win, and this home game with LSU is massive. Win the game and the Rebels are legitimate CFP contenders and probably are a 10-2 team. Texas and Georgia are the 2 likely losses, but from there, anything between about 6-6 and 10-2 is in play.
South Carolina (2-0, beat Towson 45-9): 7-5
The South Carolina Gamecocks have a crucial 4-game run. At Alabama is a likely loss, but Carolina could go 3-1, in which case the Gamecocks are more like an 8-4 team. Home games with Mississippi State and Kentucky and a road game at Florida are all winnable, but a 2-2 run seems more likely, in which case, we’ll stick in the vicinity of where this pick stands.
Tennessee (2-0, beat Georgia Tech 45-24): 8-4
Tennessee didn’t get too much of a test. It won’t in Week 3 either, but Texas and Auburn in Weeks 4 and 5 should be good tells on the SEC outlook. Vandy, Kentucky, and Arkansas should be easy wins, but Texas, Alabama, and LSU all look rough. That leaves Auburn, at South Carolina, and at A&M as the swing games.
Texas (2-0, beat Ohio State 24-23): 10-2
Texas got the win it needed to establish legitimacy. From here, the road games are the only real challenges. Ole Miss could play a spoiler in Austin, but the other toughest matchups are at Tennessee, LSU, and A&M. A 10-2 mark would certainly leave the Longhorns in the CFP field and probably in the top 5. They could be even better.
Texas A&M (2-0, beat Arizona State 48-20): 9-3
The Texas A&M Aggies are the SEC team that looks most likely to be on the fringe of the CFP picture. Road games at LSU and Alabama will be tough and they get Texas at home. The guess here would be that A&M wins 1 of those 3, but takes a loss in another game (at Oklahoma or Mizzou maybe?).
Vanderbilt (2-0, beat Delaware 35-26): 3-9
The Jared Curtis Show needs to begin this week against NC State. It’s the only hope for Vanderbilt to salvage a decent season.
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