Is HBCU Football Actually a Big Four in 2026? ...Middle East

Using the early numbers of the Opta projection model, we look at whether four HBCU football teams have separated themselves from the other programs.  

There’s perception of a big four, and then a gap, among the 21 HBCU football teams in the FCS this season.

Is perception also reality? It may play out that way come late fall, but data science and AI models suggest it’s more a little of both for South Carolina State from the MEAC and Alabama State, Jackson State and Prairie View A&M from the SWAC.

The Opta projection model includes TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), a net efficiency metric that considers how good a team is at every play relative to the strength of its opponent. The accumulation provides an offensive rating and a defensive rating per 10 drives in a game, and the difference between them gives an overall team rating.

Let’s see how TRACR (with rankings as of Monday) values the perceived big four.

South Carolina State (3-0)

Wins: Savannah State (87-0), Florida A&M (31-13), Virginia State (66-0) 

Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll: 18

FCS TRACR Ranking (Among FCS HBCUs): 51st (5th); O-TRACR: 63rd (6th); D-TRACR: 41st (2nd)

Notable: SCSU is on an 11-game MEAC winning streak and captured Celebration Bowl and mythical HBCU national titles last year. With a combined 153-0 shutout of two Division II teams as part of the No. 18 national ranking, it’s easy to feel coach Chennis Berry’s squad is the definitive best HBCU team (Mason Pickett-Hicks ranks fourth in the FCS in rushing and the defensive front seven feels impossible). Actually, the supercomputer is slowing the brakes as a result of that easy schedule, with Delaware State, last year’s MEAC runner-up, slightly ahead of SCSU in overall TRACR (49th), offensive TRACR (58th) and defensive TRACR (38th). Saturday’s visit to Furman and the regular-season finale versus Del State will be more telling for the Bulldogs.

Alabama State (2-1)

Wins: Southern (30-17), Lane (34-0); Loss: at Troy (34-17)

Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll: 26 (first outside the rankings)

FCS TRACR Ranking (Among FCS HBCUs): 40th (3rd); O-TRACR: 43rd (3rd); D-TRACR: 50th (4th)

Notable: Quarterback Andrew Body hasn’t picked up where he left off from a season-ending injury last Nov. 1, but his career suggests he could still shake off the rust. A goal-line stop by Jackson State against the Hornets wound up deciding the SWAC East Division last season, so a home game this time is important as coach Eddie Robinson Jr.’s squad tries to advance to the conference championship game for the first time since 2010. But a week after that Nov. 14 matchup, the Hornets face defending SWAC champ Prairie View – an opponent JSU doesn’t have to face on its eight-game conference schedule.

Jackson State (2-0)

Wins: at Tennessee State (26-24), Edward Waters (66-14)

Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll: 33

FCS TRACR Ranking (Among FCS HBCUs): 33rd (2nd); O-TRACR: 24th (2nd); D-TRACR: 61st (7th)

Notable: The Tigers ae playing the easiest schedule of the perceived big four teams – two D-IIs, no FBS and only 11 of the FCS-maximum 12 regular-season games – so that could affect their overall TRACR moving forward. But sophomore QB Jared Lockhart appears to only be getting better, and three of the six East teams (Florida A&M, Alabama A&M and Mississippi Valley State) are ineligible for the postseason due to NCAA Academic Progress Rate penalties. Basically, JSU’s trips to Bethune-Cookman and Alabama State should determine if coach TC Taylor’s team is getting back to the SWAC championship game.

Prairie View A&M (1-2)

Win: Texas Southern (52-14); Losses: at Tarleton State (49-30), at Baylor (44-3)

Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll: 38

FCS TRACR Ranking (Among FCS HBCUs): 31st (1st); O-TRACR: 22nd (1st); D-TRACR: 53rd (5th)

Notable: TRACR likes competition, so a strong early schedule has the defending SWAC champ as the highest-rated HBCU team. Having already thrashed Texas Southern, which finished second to the Panthers in the West Division last season, coach Tremaine Jackson’s squad will be in the driver’s seat (and with a cushion) by defeating Grambling State on Sept. 26. Baylor slowed QB Tevin Carter’s early roll, but that’s a Power-Four team, so PV’s transfer-filled lineup appears ready to string together strong results moving forward.

TRACR Rankings for Other HBCUs

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Is HBCU Football Actually a Big Four in 2026? Opta Analyst.

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