For most of their existence, the Colorado Rockies have been bad.
For the last four years, the Colorado Rockies have been especially terrible. As you probably know, they are on their way to a fourth consecutive 100-loss season. Now, they might not get there. With solid play over the final weeks, they could stay in double digits. And either way, they have made a huge improvement over a year ago. Still, these struggles have often spilled over into every aspect of the team.
Over the years, the Rockies have found themselves at a consistent disadvantage when it comes to national conversation and debate. Whether it was Larry Walker just barely getting into the Hall of Fame on his last opportunity or when Todd Helton finished 5th in MVP voting in 2000, there is a long history of voter bias. Whether it’s Coors Field or the quality of the ballclub, individual excellence is often overlooked here. And TJ Rumfield is the newest case.
He will not be National League Rookie of the year.
The Field
And honestly, that might be fair. You can make the case for Sal Stewart of the Cincinnati Reds very easily. He’s got over 30 homers and 100 RBI. No rookie has ever done that and not won the award. Seems like it’s in the bag and maybe it should be.
Of course, there will be no caveats on those statistics. No one will mention that his home park has actually given up more dingers than Rumfield’s over the last five seasons. If the home run totals were reversed (Rumfield has 15) the talk would be all about Coors Field.
But, for reference, check out this chart from Rotowire:
Curious.
In this article that polled over 40 MLB “experts” on the question of 2026 NL Rookie of the Year, Stewart’s park isn’t mentioned once. But Rumfield’s is. The Rockies first baseman ranks all the way back in fifth place, by the way, which is where he’s likely to finish in official voting as well.
He was left entirely out of the national conversation here and also here. Luckily, a recent swing through New York has shined a bit of a light on Rumfield, including this fun segment on MLB Network.
Probably the most telling moment was Rumfield explaining, “Whatever the situation that the baseball game is calling for, that’s what I’m trying to do… I’m just trying to play baseball; I’m not trying to play home run ball.”
The Debate
Unfortunately, much of the media is treating RotY as a two-way race between Stewart and JJ Weatherholt of the St. Louis Cardinals. This debate also mirrors a long-running argument in many baseball circles. Weatherholt doesn’t have offensive numbers anywhere near as impressive as Stewart’s. His argument is built entirely on defense and WAR. And it’s a compelling argument.
If those systems are evaluating him correctly, Weatherholt has indeed been the most valuable rookie in the NL this year, topping the charts on both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. So, we once again all get to wax poetic about whether or not defense at shortstop and league average hitting is more or less valuable than an elite bat with substandard defense at a non-premium position.
Then, we get to add into the mix situational hitting and general consistency.
Which Stat Do You Trust?
It’s a sign of the times. Both Stewart and Weatherholt are imbalanced but so good at what they do well that the metrics weigh out in their favor. Then you have the opposite case in Rumfield.
In truth, Rumfield isn’t elite at any one thing outside perhaps his approach, which can be hard to measure. His 15 home runs aren’t especially impressive either for a first baseman or for a player of his stature. Driving in 67 runs as a middle-of-the order bat also isn’t going to win you a lot of attention.
He lacks power despite his size and ranks as one of the slowest players in MLB. There was a time, though, not that long ago, when we did collectively put a premium on what Rumfield does.
“Everyone look at your charts or I’m gonna point at Pete again… he gets on base.”
A League of His Own
Rumfield comfortably leads the rookie pack with a .389 on-base percentage. Weatherholt is 46 points behind with an OBP of .343 and Stewart behind him with a .337. A similar dynamic exists in the old dinosaur stat of batting average. Again, Rumfield is dramatically outpacing the field with .297, Stewart is sporting .267 and Weatherholt is saddled with an ugly .242.
There are plenty of good reasons why batting average has fallen out of favor, but that is quite the discrepancy. It should aksi be noted that Rumfield has roughly even splits.
He is hitting .287 on the road and has drawn more walks away from Coors than at home. While a big outfield in Denver absolutely helps, it is the contact rate and approach that drives his production. Rumfield has made himself one of the most consistent hitters in baseball, not just among rookies, through a process he takes into every single at-bat, giving him a walk rate of 11.7 percent to a strikeout rate of 13.8 percent. In the modern game, that’s practically superhuman.
Would he be better off striking out more and hitting more homers? Does that add more value? Or does it just make you more likely to win an award?
In these traditional stats, Rumfield has no rookie competition. His batting average is tied for fifth place with Freddie Freeman. His OBP has him just ahead of Bryce Harper for third place in the senior circuit. And his OPS, arguably the best stat we have for measuring total offense, places him tenth. Not among rookies. Among all players in the National League.
Furthermore, his ten defensive runs saved are second among National League first baseman. No, it isn’t a premium position, but he should also be in strong consideration for a Gold Glove.
What It All Comes Down To
The kid in Cincinnati is smashing it. And the one in St. Louis is flashing the leather. Meanwhile, the kid out here in Colorado just quietly goes about the job of being one of the most fundamentally sound players in the game. In both halves of the inning. The best case for Rumfield is to watch him every single day. Therein lies the rub. The people who vote on these awards are not doing that. And it’s easy to see why. The team loses a lot. They play in an odd time zone. Voters just aren’t seeing him regularly and that’s too bad because they are missing out.
You won’t see what he does best on highlights. You’ll see it watching him grind out at-bat after at-bat. You’ll see it in the way he almost never has a three-pitch strikeout, the way he lays off a 3-2 barely out of the zone, the way he serves a soft single deliberately to shallow left to score a two-out run. If you watch a few TJ Rumfield at-bats, then watch a few more, you’ll start to get it.
So, while he won’t be taking home Rookie of the Year, he will be taking with him a skillset that gives him a chance to be one of the most consistent players for the next decade. And that, in the end, will matter far more than an award.
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