Chicago Bears safety Dillon Thieneman isn’t among the favorites to win the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year award. But that isn’t stopping one insider from shooting his shot with a bold prediction.
ESPN’s Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Dan Graziano, Pamela Maldonado, and Jordan Reid’s 2026 NFL rookies guide is a must-read before Sunday’s Week 1 kickoff. This piece gives you an overarching look at the league’s projected top rookies, which could be valuable for those of you who spent the offseason hibernating. One notable nugget: Maldonado has Bears safety Dillon Thieneman on her list of top Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates. Thieneman ranks third. And with a 25/1 shot at winning the league’s top defensive rookie honors, I couldn’t help but share this:
As a calculated long shot, the first-round pick is already Chicago’s starting strong safety. He should be around the ball plenty after playing 40% of his snaps in the box last season. Thieneman recorded 94 tackles in his final college season, while missing just 7.8% of his attempts.
Safeties rarely win DROY, but the last one to do it was Mark Carrier with the Bears in 1990. Thieneman is worthy of bringing the award back home given his immediate role.
MEET THE BEARS’ FIRST-ROUND PICK: Everything You Need to Know About Dillon Thieneman
That is a fun factoid at the end. Before using their top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft on Thieneman, the Bears hadn’t picked a first-round safety since 1990. And when they did, he put together a season worthy of winning the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year award. Now, 36 years later, the Bears have taken a first-round safety. Can he make lightning strike twice?
Aug 29, 2026; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Chicago Bears safety Dillon Thieneman (31) breaks up a pass intended for Tennessee Titans wide receiver Carnell Tate (14) in the first quarter at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn ImagesA Look at Dillon Thieneman’s NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
While the collection of young talent on the offensive side of the ball gets a lot of our attention, we should keep a close eye on Dillon Thieneman’s development as a rookie. If Thieneman can provide the kind of impact that we saw from players like Colston Loveland, Luther Burden III, and Kyle Monangai during their rookie seasons, then the Bears’ defense will be better than expected. Yes, the bar is low. So beating expectations shouldn’t be championed as if it were some major accomplishment. But if Thieneman can establish himself as a blue-chip player, it would go a long way toward exceeding expectations.
For what it’s worth, NFL Draft guru Daniel Jeremiah is a believer in Thieneman as a player who can elevate Chicago’s defense:
Bears repeat in division? pic.twitter.com/pz6Zgll2XX
— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) September 9, 2026More from Jeremiah:
“I’m going to go to the defensive side of the ball, because I feel like that’s where a lot of the folks are saying, ‘I don’t know if I’m buying this Bears team and their ability to repeat.’ This is one of the main reasons why I’m buying them. I think Dillon Thieneman is going to be the Defensive Rookie of the Year. That’s my power statement on the Chicago Bears and their defense.
When you go back and watch him at Purdue, he played in the middle of the field and was making all types of plays ranging as a center fielder. Then you watch him at Oregon. He can line up in the nickel; you can move him around. All the best defenses have a player like this, with that type of versatility. Now, the Bears have one. He’s going to be a playmaker.”
MORE: Coby Bryant On What Makes Dillon Thieneman “Special”
That is high praise from Jeremiah, who views Thieneman as an impact defender from the get-go. I still have my concerns about the Bears’ defense as a whole. But I feel a little better after hearing that breakdown of his game and what the rookie brings to the table.
Aug 22, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Dillon Thieneman (31) after a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn ImagesOne last thought: I found it interesting that Daniel Jeremiah highlighted Dillon Thieneman’s versatility. The Bears have nickel concerns, with Kyler Gordon’s long-term availability unknown. And I’m still unsure how things will shake out at safety with Xavier Woods and Cam Lewis. Given his athleticism, potential, and playmaking ability, I wonder if Thieneman will be deployed as a nickel cornerback in certain situations.
For what it’s worth, Thieneman has experience playing slot. He played 118 snaps as a slot corner at Oregon in 2025 and had 102 plays at the position in 2024. I understand that playing that position in the pros isn’t the same as playing it in college, but I believe Thieneman’s speed and athleticism could be useful out of the slot. Perhaps this is something to monitor when the rookie makes his debut on Sunday.
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