Putin’s high-risk threats to the UK leave him exposed ...Middle East

Russia is stepping up threats to UK factories and infrastructure to try and undermine British support to Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin’s regime has launched a media offensive warning that there could be a “semi-military” response against British factories that build drones used by Ukraine to hit Russian targets.

Andrei Fedorov, a former deputy foreign minister in Putin’s government, has called Britain “evil number one” and repeatedly threatened sites that Russia claims are legitimate targets including drone and missile factories in the UK.

The latest Kremlin threats come days after Prime Minister Andy Burnham boosted British support for Ukraine with a visit to Kyiv and a commitment to provide Ukraine with the blueprints for British Storm Shadow missiles that could be used to strike deep into Russian territory.

Britain’s staunch political and military support for Ukraine is increasingly angering the Putin regime, who are looking for a way to hit back. As diplomatic relations between Russia and Britain sink to an all-time low, Putin may back himself into a corner where he has no choice but to follow through with his threats.

And there might be an even greater risk as Russian tactics develop and they look to work with other rogue regimes such as Iran, experts warn.

Fedorov told the BBC a Russian response to Britain’s support for Ukraine could target “factories which are producing drones for Ukraine”. And speaking to the Mail on Sunday, he said that the UK was “evil number one” and that Putin’s government were considering a “hybrid” attack to avoid a direct military response from Nato.

In this latest interview, Fedorov explicitly named a site in Suffolk owned by a British-Ukrainian firm Ukrspecsystems close to the US air force base at RAF Mildenhall. The company, described as Ukraine’s largest drone manufacturer, opened the factory earlier this year, committing £200m in investment to support building and testing drones that can be used on the battlefield.

After months of cat-and-mouse military operations at sea and in the air between British and Russian forces, Burnham’s first overseas visit as Prime Minister to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv appears to have shifted the calculations being made in Moscow.

“For Russia, when Andy Burnham went to Kyiv his speech really sounded like a war cry,” explained Anna Matveeva, senior visiting research fellow at King’s College London’s Russia Institute.

Speaking to The i Paper, Matveeva described how Burnham’s comments reinforce a fear in the Kremlin that Britain is determined to harm Russia through support to Ukraine. “It was perceived that he’s not only determined to continue the previous support, but that he’s also prepared to escalate,” she said.

And while other European countries such as France and Germany have stood by Ukraine, Matveeva believes Britain is Putin’s main target. “France and Germany are certainly doing their bit, but in terms of offensive capabilities, Britain is absolutely the frontrunner. Britain is saying very openly any hits on Russian territory are justified and legitimate,” she said.

British security and defence officials have long warned of the threat from Russia and other rogue nations of so-called “hybrid” attacks against critical British infrastructure or economic targets. Last month, the UK Government announced plans for the biggest exercise in decades to test defences against threats such as cyber attacks and sabotage to be held in 2027.

But with diplomatic and economic relations between Russia and Britain in the deep freeze, and an Iranian regime emboldened by holding off American forces in the Gulf, the latest round of threats could be more dangerous than ever before.

“These are not fantasy threats,” believes Melanie Garson, associate professor of international security at University College London. “It doesn’t necessarily have to be a direct attack on a drone factory, it could be somewhere in the supply chain of parts for these factories,” Garson told The i Paper.

Garson points to a pattern of Russian threats where the Kremlin seeks to heap psychological pressure on British industry and government. “Russian operating concepts are very, very holistic. There are layers – cognitive activity, operational, cyber, disinformation.”

At a Ministry of Defence briefing on Friday, officials said Russia’s “appetite” to conduct hybrid or “grey zone” activity towards Nato countries, such as attempted sabotage and cyber attacks, was “very clear”.One official added: “Our assessment, though, is that President Putin absolutely wants to avoid a direct confrontation with Nato. However, I think in all of this, there is the risk of miscalculation as this activity continues.”

Garson believes both the challenge and the risks from Russia are constantly changing. “As much as Ukraine’s defence technology has evolved over the last four years, that same war economy has happened in Russia as well, so we should never underestimate that. And I also say never underestimate who it might be working with. We’ve seen the Iranian action on water systems, and with hybrid warfare it can carry a lot of deniability. It can be fairly low cost for the actor doing it, and it can have massive impact,” she explained.

As tensions ratchet up, the danger is that Putin will be backed into a corner where he has to carry out some sort of attack to maintain credibility. But doing so comes with a real risk for the Russian leader.

“If you make threats all the time and you never actually do anything, after a while your threats become less credible, so unless you actually do something, you are not going to be seen as very formidable, so in that sense, I think it’s dangerous,” says Matveeva.

“That said I don’t think that Moscow wants to totally wreck the relationship with Britain. On one level, you cannot make threats indefinitely, on the other hand, you do not want to reach a point of no return in the relationship.”

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