After a disappointing title defence, can Liverpool challenge for the Premier League crown again under new boss Andoni Iraola? We look at the Opta supercomputer’s pre-season predictions for the Reds.
Winning the league unexpectedly in 2024-25, then boosting the squad with over £400 million of spending last summer, things were supposed to only be looking up for Liverpool.
It didn’t go according to plan in Arne Slot’s second season, though. The tragic death of Diogo Jota overshadowed the campaign before it began, new players struggled to settle, and they lost key players Trent Alexander-Arnold and Luis Díaz, somewhat surprisingly without replacing the latter.
A fifth-place finish was just about enough to qualify for the UEFA Champions League, but not enough to save Slot’s job. He’s been replaced by Andoni Iraola, who will hope to continue impressing people as he did across his three years at Bournemouth.
Ahead of the opening weekend of action in the competition, we look at the Opta supercomputer’s pre-season projections for Liverpool in the 2026-27 Premier League.
Liverpool Season Preview 2026-27
Premier LeagueWill Andoni Iraola Bring Excitement and Success Back to Liverpool? Five Key Questions Ahead of 2026-27
10 hours ago David SegarThe Opta Supercomputer’s Pre-Season Predictions
Most Likely Finish: 2ndLikelihood of Winning the Premier League: 9.2%Likelihood of a Top-Four Finish: 40.8%
Liverpool feel like one of the less predictable teams heading into the 2026-27 campaign. The huge gap between how impressive they were in 2024-25 and how vulnerable they looked a year later means we really don’t know what to expect next.
On top of that, they have a new head coach who has impressed in the Premier League, but with the greatest of respect, hasn’t done it at a top club yet. How Iraola adapts to greater expectations will have a massive bearing on how far Liverpool can go this season.
The Opta supercomputer somewhat likes his chances, though. A title win is a bit of a long shot – Liverpool only won it in 9.2% of the 10,000 pre-season simulations – but that is still the third highest percentage handed out, only behind Arsenal (40.6%) and Manchester City (19.6%).
Despite only being third favourites for the title, the supercomputer sees the Reds as likeliest to finish second out of all other positions. That’s not to say they will, though. Arsenal (20.2%) and Man City (17.8%) finished second more often than Liverpool (11.2%) in the sims, but the uncertainty around the Merseysiders means their percentages were spread out a lot more.
If you offered the fans Champions League qualification again as Iraola gets to grips with things, most would probably take it. Liverpool have a healthy 40.8% chance of finishing in the top four this season.
But as we have learned from the last two seasons, should English clubs perform well in Europe and earn enough coefficient points, then fifth place could also secure UCL action next term. Liverpool finished inside the top five places in 49.7% of the supercomputer’s simulations.
*All prediction data is based on Opta supercomputer projections from simulations run on 20 August 2026.
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Liverpool Predictions: Opta Supercomputer’s Projections for Premier League 2026-27 Opta Analyst.
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