Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is facing a major internal political challenge after a recently dismissed defense minister called for a wartime presidential election. But holding an election during an ongoing war would pose enormous legal and logistical challenges—and it may not be possible at all.
Ex-Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov's challenge comes amid an ongoing war with Russia. While Zelenskyy’s five-year term was scheduled to end in May 2024, elections have been suspended under martial law since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Fedorov posted a nine-minute video online Tuesday, demanding that Ukraine “restore a full democratic process even amid a prolonged war.”
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“Democracy cannot be held hostage by Russia. We are fighting precisely because we want to remain a free European state,” Fedorov said. “We must find a legal, safe, and realistic mechanism which will allow Ukraine to renew its full democratic process even in the conditions of a long war.”
Fedorov, 35, was a longtime ally of Zelenskyy before he was abruptly fired in July amid mounting friction with military leadership, and his departure sparked days of protests. On Wednesday, Yevhenii Khmara was confirmed as the new defense minister.
Although Fedorov did not mention Zelenskyy in the video, he issued a blistering critique of Ukrainian leadership, saying that the country is in a “systemic crisis of governance” and alluding to corruption. The accusation comes just after Zelenskyy fired deputy chief of staff Iryna Mudra on Wednesday amid a money-laundering investigation.
This is not the first time that Zelenskyy has come under fire for the suspended elections. Last year, President Donald Trump attacked him as a “dictator without elections.” However, the Ukrainian President has steadfastly denied that he is using the war to cling to power and said he would be open to an election if it could be safely and securely held.
“I am now asking—and I am stating this openly—for the United States, possibly together with our European colleagues, to help me ensure security for holding elections,” he told reporters on WhatsApp at the end of 2025. He said there would need to be “guarantees” from the United States and Russia to ensure safe voting practices.
Zelenskyy had yet to respond to the comments from Fedorov as of Wednesday afternoon, but experts say it is unlikely that an election can take place in Ukraine.
Historically, very few countries have held elections in wartime, Konstantin Sonin, a professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, tells TIME, adding that it's very unlikely for an election to happen in Ukraine.
A ceasefire would first be needed—but Sonin says it’s unlikely that Ukraine would trust any assurances from Russia.
“I cannot imagine that Ukraine would rely on any kind of guarantees from Russia to have elections,” Sonin tells TIME. “[Concerns about] Russian election interference are half of the problem.”
Sonin says that there are also many “practical limitations” to putting the necessary technology and infrastructure in place for a secure vote.
“The main limitation is that it's difficult to count votes from the occupied territories,” he says.
Russia occupies roughly 19% of Ukraine. According to Ukrainian figures from January of that year, there could be as many as 4.5 million adults living in those occupied territories. Millions more Ukrainians have been internally displaced.
Who could challenge Zelenskyy?
It’s unlikely that any challenger would successfully unseat the Ukrainian President amid the ongoing war, Sonin says.
“Zelenskyy won elections in 2019, defeating the incumbent, and since then navigated an extremely complex terrain of Ukrainian politics,” he says. “He would defeat any other candidate.”
Sonin says in years past there were potential presidential alternatives—including General Valerii Zaluzhnyi—who might have been perceived as someone who could “prosecute the war better.”
Zaluzhnyi long held that he had no political ambitions; however, in July, Ukrainska Pravda reported that Zaluzhnyi told Zelenskyy he would run if elections were held in the fall, citing sources close to both men. Sources told the outlet that Zaluzhnyi had changed his mind because he didn’t want to disregard the trust that people had placed in him.
“Ukraine is not losing, and there is so much hope,” Sonin says. “I do not see how Zelenskyy would not win these elections.”
Recent polling, however, complicates Sonin’s assessment. SOCIS, a polling firm, found that Zelenskyy would finish first in the first round in an election against Fedorov, Zaluzhnyi, and Kyrylo Budanov—the current chief of staff for the President, who has not publicly expressed any intention to run. Zelenskyy would capture 22% of the vote as compared with Zaluzhnyi’s 21% and Fedorov’s 13%.
Because none of the candidates would command the majority, which is required in Ukraine, the top two contenders would move on to a runoff election. And if the vote did reach a second round, the poll projected a loss for Zelenskyy. He ranked behind Fedorov, Zaluzhnyi, and Budanov in the prospective runoff modeled by SOCIS.
Recent developments in the war could also shift those political dynamics. In the past few weeks, Ukraine has expanded its aerial war against Russia. It started ramping up production of long-range missiles that can travel up to 1,500 miles (2,400 km) from the border and has already targeted several key retail and energy hubs in and around Moscow.
According to Ukrainian media, Zelenskyy’s approval rating has dipped since the war started, but still remains close to 60%.
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