Several experts in African affairs affirmed that Egypt possesses a range of political, diplomatic, legal, and regional tools to deter Ethiopia’s unilateral actions regarding the Nile waters and its dams.
Commenting on Addis Ababa’s statements about its intention to construct more dams on the Blue Nile, they indicated that Cairo’s strategy is based on parallel tracks, including regional and international pressure and action, building influential alliances against Ethiopian interests, and strengthening the domestic front against any potential water shortages.
Ambassador Salah Halema, Vice President of the Egyptian Council for African Affairs, said that Ethiopian actions related to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the Entebbe Agreement contravene international laws and conventions.
He emphasized that dealing with a transboundary international river cannot be based on unilateral sovereignty or actions that harm the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan.
Halema added that the Ethiopian minister’s statements regarding his country’s control over the amount of water flowing to the downstream countries reveal “political, not developmental,” objective for the dam.
He stressed the necessity of reaching a legally binding, fair, and equitable agreement regarding the filling and operation of GERD. He described the Ethiopian approach as an attempt to “localize the rivers,” meaning to treat international rivers originating within its territory as internal rivers.
Three paths
Halema outlined three paths for Egypt to deter Ethiopian actions: first, returning to negotiations in good faith and with genuine political will; second, seeking international mediation capable of advancing the negotiations, noting the possibility of the US president playing a role in resuming negotiations and guaranteeing the rights of downstream countries.
He explained that the third path involves resorting to the United Nations, starting with the mechanisms for the peaceful settlement of disputes, adding that in the event of serious harm threatening the state and its fundamental interests, the right of legitimate self-defense under Article 51 of the Charter remains in effect.
Deterrent mechanisms
An expert on African affairs at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Amany al-Tawil, said that Egypt is addressing Ethiopia through three parallel deterrent mechanisms.
The first involves building broad and influential regional alliances that impact Ethiopia and its interests, she said, adding that the second focuses on engaging with issues related to Ethiopian interests and employing pressure and deterrent measures to influence them should Egyptian interests be harmed.
She explained that the third mechanism aims to safeguard Egypt’s water security and mitigate the repercussions of any potential water shortages through the High Dam, expanding desalination capacity, diversifying crop patterns, and promoting water conservation, particularly in agriculture.
Tawil called for intensifying Egyptian engagement within Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa using new mechanisms to broaden understanding of the Egyptian position within the continent and international organizations.
Ethiopia’s failed domestic policies
Former Irrigation Minister Mohamed Nasr Eddin Allam said that Addis Ababa’s pronouncements are evidence of the failure of its domestic policies.
Allam explained that Egypt’s foreign policy has been successful recently, while Addis Ababa faces significant pressure and a severe economic crisis, which has led it to resorting to “distracting” public opinion by fabricating crises with neighboring countries such as Egypt, Sudan, and Eritrea.
Edited translation from Al-Masry Al-Youm
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