To his critics, Nigel Farage is performatively petulant: even in victory, refusing to attend the Clacton election count on contentious security grounds. The Reform UK leader’s by-election win and resulting return to Parliament is, they argue, not even really a victory. Rather, it was predictable, and, anyway, the comedian dressed as a bin did a bit better than expected. We reached peak Farage a year ago with Reform at 35 per cent in the polls – now things are spiraling for him.
The problem with this churlish, Westminster village narrative is it vastly underestimates the man who has just become a Member of Parliament again and those around him.
Firstly, Farage won. Convincingly. A 60 per cent plus share of any by-election – on a very healthy turnout of 44 per cent – is strong no matter who your opponents are, even the Everyone Is God Party with their 10 votes. This was not a by-election the electorate didn’t care about, or viewed as a joke, as many of Farage’s critics did. People turned up to vote for their guy.
The Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Green and Restore Britain didn’t stand, and they will feel vindicated in that decision, but they will have to stand against Farage in future. Meanwhile, the Reform leader proves his point to those wavering, whilst accepting there is a major part of the electorate who loathe him and whom he will never win over. There is also the added bonus for his team of very valuable – and contemporary – voter data, should there be a subsequent by-election.
To trigger the first of these two possible by-elections as a statement of defiance to his critics was a bold but calculated risk. It dominated the news agenda for days and distracted the media from the box-fresh new Prime Minister, Andy Burnham. To at least some degree, the strategy has been successful for Farage, moving the conversation on regarding allegations about Christopher Harborne’s £5m, as well as gifts in kind from convicted fraudster George Cottrell.
My sense, as a presenter on the Talk radio and TV network, which has a high number of Reform-sympathetic viewers and listeners, is that Farage’s public is bored by the controversy. Westminster is not, and many took great glee on Friday morning when Commissioner for parliamentary Standards, Daniel Greenberg, announced his probe was restarting, a move not anticipated by Farage’s camp when the by-election was called. But it’s doubtful if Greenberg’s findings on whether or not Farage “filled in a piece of paper” – as the MP puts it – will make any material difference.
Yes, Greenberg’s findings could trigger a series of events that means another by-election, but Farage will almost certainly win that, if it happens. Farage will get even more media attention, painting himself once more as the scourge of the establishment who will go to any lengths to stop him. Farage’s most dangerous electoral critics, Restore Britain, are smarting from allegations of racism and antisemitism, and are increasingly being seen for what they are.
This is all in the context of Farage’s move to a strategy of shoring up the core vote, as he has in Clacton. This will not mean the heights of last summer’s polls, but it does allow Farage to concentrate on the very real threats to his personal security, brought into sharp focus by the killing of Ann Widdecombe. Elements of the media and even the police, who Farage does not believe do enough to protect him, are part of this conversation and criticism.
What has emerged from recent weeks is not the image of the grinning, pint-swilling Farage of old. Rather, a grittier, angrier Farage, who channels that invective towards electoral success. As many hundreds of Reform councillors up and down the country get to work, a record of delivery is being built, although that brings risk too and inevitable controversies. But what it also allows is another reinvention of a Farage who has dominated UK politics for the past quarter century. The most consequential politician of his generation, and his age, has much more premium unleaded in the tank.
Farage’s mistake in recent days was not to take a media victory lap, to square up to difficult questions head on and answer the outstanding Harborne and Cottrell controversies. “Can’t you even say well done on my victory?” he could have reasonably asked the interviewers he despises. Channels which he has criticised would have been forced to more extensively cover his vindication. He could have pivoted to immigration, with the controversy over the proposed Piddington asylum seeker centre a major issue.
The successful Farage brand is the accessible celebrity, combative yet likeable, straightforward yet surprising. The challenge the Reform UK leader now faces is how to marry his considerable assets as a politician with the new, post-Clacton, more challenging reality in which he and his party find themselves.
Peter Cardwell is a presenter on Talk and author of The Secret Life of Special Advisers. His second book, Political Animals, is out in paperback on 1 September
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