Twenty years ago, a blue wave washed across the country, as favorable political conditions allowed Democrats to earn majorities in both chambers of Congress and gain control of several governors’ mansions. Their success was spurred by voter frustration with the second term of Republican President George W. Bush and his unpopular war in the Middle East, as well as concerns over the economy and rising energy costs.
It’s a story that today’s Democrats would love to rerun, and which Republicans fear to repeat. On the surface, the conditions seem similar: President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are nearly 20 points underwater; the national average for the price of gas is more than $4 per gallon; and the war in Iran is little liked by the public.
But it’s unlikely that Democrats will see the kind of blue wave they experienced two decades ago, even with favorable conditions. In 2006, Democrats netted six new Senate seats and gained 31 seats in the House of Representatives. It’s hard to imagine such a sweeping victory this November, in part because there are fewer competitive swing seats than there have been in elections past.
In the House, this is partially due to partisan gerrymandering of congressional districts. Republicans are particularly skilled in this arena: According to the Cook Political Report, there was a 70 percent drop in swing seats in states with GOP redistricting control between 1997 and 2023. These fights have only become more rabid, with a slate of states undertaking mid-decade redistricting efforts in response to urgings from Trump—a practice recently empowered by the Supreme Court’s decision diluting the power of racial minority voters.
“Redistricting was a factor in our elections 20 years ago, but the parties have gotten better at drawing the lines, and have reduced the number of seats that are reasonably within reach for for each party,” said Nathan Gonzales, the editor and publisher of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan election analysis site.
But there is also an increasingly large gulf between the two parties on the ideological spectrum, and blue-state Republicans and red-state Democrats are less likely to be elected on a federal level. Members of Congress are voting in line further to the left or the right than they have been in previous years. And even though fewer voters are identifying themselves as either Democrats or Republicans, they are also less willing to consider a candidate from the party they ideologically oppose.
“Today the parties want to build very different worlds, and in 2006 they wanted to build worlds that were different, but not as different as they are today,” said Lynn Vavreck, a political science and communications professor at UCLA. “In 2006, if you were a voter who didn’t have a strong party allegiance, you were better able to entertain a vote for one side or the other side.”
In 2026, however, a Democratic-leaning voter casting a ballot for a Republican candidate would signal support for Trump’s most controversial policies, such as the surge of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers in blue cities. Conversely, a more conservative voter who might have been able to swallow their dislike of Democrats in 2006 to express their displeasure with the war in Iraq might be less likely to do so today.
“The parties are far apart and it’s harder for voters to swing, and that might limit the losses, and that’s really the reason that nobody is really predicting a 31 seat swing in 2026,” said Vavreck.
In 2006, Democrats’ dramatic victories were in part the result of a “snowball effect” in seemingly unrelated issues with Republicans turned into political poison, including a series of scandals that plagued GOP members of Congress—resulting in the resignation of four members of Congress leading up to the 2006 elections, and the reelection losses of another three. Similarly, accusations of sexual harassment and assault have upended some House races this year, and domestic violence allegations against Representative Max Miller have put his seat in play for Democrats. (Serious accusations against prominent politicians this year are not limited to Republicans: California gubernatorial candidate Eric Swalwell and Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner both ended their campaigns after being accused of rape.)
Even if some Democratic candidates have flaws that on the surface make them weaker candidates, it’s possible that the frustration with the president and Republicans will bubble over at the ballot box, as it did in 2006.
“There were Republicans in 2006 who were excited about the opposition research that they had on Democratic candidates, but voters weren’t willing to listen,” said Gonzales. “Those attack messages were falling flat because voters were determined that change was more important.”
Howard Dean, the former governor of Vermont who served as chair of the Democratic National Party during 2006 elections, believes that Trump will be an even greater drag on the Republican Party in 2026 than President George W. Bush was 20 years ago. Trump’s election in 2024 was a sign of how voters wanted change “in the worst way,” argued Dean, but now he believes many have buyer’s remorse.
“I think it’s not so much that people want to change to the Democrats. It’s just that they’re very unhappy with the status quo. It’s gotten worse, not better, since Trump has been president,” said Dean.
Even without Trump’s relative unpopularity, Republicans would be facing unfavorable political conditions this year. The president’s party typically does poorly in the first midterm elections after he enters office. Of the nine Senate elections that are considered to be competitive this year, three are held by Democrats, and the remaining six by Republicans. Democrats have a solid chance of flipping Senate seats in North Carolina, Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas. Many analysts give Democrats even better odds of gaining control of the House.
It’s an open question whether these headwinds will benefit Democrats on the state level. In 2006, the blue wave didn’t just apply to the chambers of Congress, but to statehouses as well. Before the midterm elections, there were 22 Democratic governors and 28 Republicans; afterwards, those numbers were reversed. Democrats also won 300 state legislative seats across the country that year.
But where voters wanted to send a message on their displeasure with American involvement in Iraq in 2006, the frustration with the war in Iran is more connected to cost-of-living issues. Preelection polling in 2006 found that the Iraq war was the top issue for voters, whereas recent polling has shown that the state of the economy is the priority for voters ahead of this November’s election. There are warning signs for Republicans today about Trump’s handling of the economy. According to a Politico poll, 41 percent of Trump voters who do not identify with the MAGA movement believe the rising cost of living is Trump’s biggest failure.
Republicans have often tried to capitalize on the “culture war” issues of a given era, and in this cycle, they are working to tie Democrats to socialism, particularly given the success of progressive candidates such as Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. Whether those attacks stick could determine the behavior of voters in the very few remaining swing states.
“If voters are focused on the economy, inflation, cost of living, then Democrats are going to do very well. But if voters are focused on the Democratic Socialists of America and socialism, and whether they like socialism or not, then Republicans are going to do well and maybe hold on to both the House and the Senate,” said Gonzales.
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