The Premier League is the strongest league in world football. This makes it notoriously difficult to predict how players will adapt after a transfer.
Using Solio’s FPL projection model, we assess how seven of this summer’s most intriguing arrivals are expected to translate their previous performances into Fantasy Premier League points in 2026-27.
The Premier League is the strongest division in world football. That isn’t one writer’s opinion – it’s a notion backed up by more than 35 years of data.
Entering the 2026-27 season, 11 Premier League teams rank among the top 20 in the world according to the Opta Power Rankings.
The Opta Power Rankings use a hierarchical Elo-based rating system to measure team strength, generated for men’s football by analysing match results from more than three million games since 1990.
The team ratings, which range from zero to 100, can also be used to calculate an average rating for each league. This is where we can truly see the unrivalled strength of the Premier League.
The average team rating in the Premier League is 92.8; that’s 5.9 rating points higher than the next-best league, Germany’s Bundesliga, which averages 86.9. Remarkably, that gap is almost as large as the gap between those two divisions and England’s second tier, the EFL Championship (81.2).
This is a key factor for Fantasy Premier League managers to consider when studying the data of players joining Premier League teams. If the Premier League is materially stronger, how should we interpret a player’s numbers when they move into it?
Solio’s projections are designed to help you answer that question. Their approach draws on years of cross-league data to model how production translates between leagues, while accounting for the team a player is joining and their competition for goals, chances and set-piece duties within that squad.
Take the contrast in the outputs of Christos Tzolis unique among the seven players listed in this piece is that he already has Premier League experience. The issue is that, having largely come as a 19-year-old for a Norwich City side who finished bottom of the league in 2021-22, it’s almost entirely irrelevant.
Norwich fans are likely a little surprised to see him return to the Premier League with a move to the division’s reigning champions, but his numbers for Club Brugge last season make it clear why Arsenal saw fit to bring him in as a replacement for Leandro Trossard.
Tzolis contributed an eye-watering 17 goals and 23 assists in the Belgian Pro League last season – 16 more goal involvements than any other player.
Ranked as the seventh-best league in the world by the Power Rankings, Belgium’s top flight deserves respect, but rest assured he will not be hitting those same heights in the Premier League.
Although still respectable, Solio project Tzolis’ goals to drop from 0.50 per 90 minutes to 0.28, while his FPL assists are projected to fall from 0.70 to 0.27.
He assisted seven goals from corners last season, and his talent from dead-ball situations was likely a significant part of his appeal to Arsenal. Even so, he faces a battle to displace Declan Rice from left-sided corners, and this is another aspect that currently cuts down his assist projections.
Tzolis has strong competition on the left in the form of Gabriel Martinelli, while Eberechi Eze and Noni Madueke can be regarded as options on that side too, but the 24-year-old could provide good value for Fantasy managers at £6.5m if he can secure a run of starts.
Luka Vuskovic | Brighton & Hove Albion | DEF | £5.0m
Bazoumana Touré starred for a surprise-package Hoffenheim side who only narrowly missed out on UEFA Champions League football.
Touré’s exploits earned him a £42 million move to Newcastle, after the club identified him as a long-term replacement for Anthony Gordon following the Englishman’s switch to Barcelona.
When adding his five Fantasy assists – an element that Solio models in their assist projections – Touré’s return rises to 14 assists in 2025-26, equating to 0.54 assists per 90 minutes. Only two Premier League players bettered that rate last season: Bruno Fernandes (0.70) and Rayan Cherki (0.66).
It’s a return that will no doubt raise eyebrows among Fantasy managers, but Solio’s projections suggest Touré is unlikely to replicate that level of output, with his FPL assist rate projected to fall to 0.26 per 90 based on current information.
The difference in attacking environments is another reason for the projection. The Bundesliga is simply a higher-scoring league than the Premier League, with 3.2 goals per game compared to 2.8. Hoffenheim’s 1.9 goals per game last season would have ranked second in the Premier League, behind only Manchester City (2.0), while Newcastle averaged 1.4.
Touré also has to usurp the more experienced Harvey Barnes on Newcastle’s left, and even if he wins that battle, 90-minute outings may prove difficult to come by.
Johan Manzambi | Aston Villa | MID | £6.0m
Touré wasn’t the only bright spark from the Bundesliga that Newcastle had their eyes on this summer. They also tried to sign Mamadou Sangaré was one of the standout players in Ligue 1 last season, earning himself a place in the competition’s Team of the Year on the back of do-it-all performances for second-place Lens.
The Malian had been linked with a host of clubs around Europe, and Brentford appear to have done considerably well to bring his talents to West London.
His appeal for Fantasy managers is clear: Sangaré averaged a staggering 14.2 DEFCONs per 90 last season, a figure which led all players in Ligue 1 and would have led all players in the Premier League, too.
Solio’s current projection for that figure in the Premier League is 12.5, which would have ranked sixth in the Premier League. It’s not a huge drop – and we’ve seen that midfielders who regularly hit DEFCON can provide good value at this price range – but it suggests that he may be one to monitor early on. Of course, midfielders in FPL need more defensive contributions in total to earn their two bonus FPL points. They have to get 12 defensive contributions, whereas defenders only need 10. Even so, Sangaré’s projection should mean he secures the amount needed.
Lens were the leading team for midfielder-relevant DEFCONS in Ligue 1 last season, while in the Premier League Brentford ranked a still-notable fourth. Sangaré will have to compete for DEFCONs with multiple Brentford midfielders who themselves fare well in this aspect – Vitaly Janelt (11.5), Yehor Yarmolyuk (11.5) and Mikkel Damsgaard (10.5).
Midfielders make up much of their DEFCON numbers from recoveries, and Sangaré led all players in Ligue 1 last season for recoveries per 90, with 8.0. Lens topped Ligue 1 for recoveries last season, and Brentford excelled here too, ranking second in the Premier League.
But the two clubs achieved these ranks differently; Lens’ high-press saw them rank fourth in Ligue 1 for final third recoveries, while Brentford’s less aggressive approach saw them 15th in the Premier League. Solio’s model considers how that change of style may affect a player’s recovery numbers.
It’s important to reiterate that none of Solio’s player projections are set-and-forget – they are based on the latest available information and will update as that information changes.
That’s particularly relevant for new arrivals. While an established Premier League player’s projection is supported by years of evidence, a new signing’s projection can shift quickly as more becomes known about their role.
Solio’s website allows for a “bring your own beliefs” approach to squad planning. If you don’t agree with their projections, you can edit them to figures you deem more likely, and a player’s potential points return in upcoming gameweeks will be altered in your personal plan.
Sangaré has the potential to provide fantastic value in Fantasy Premier League this season, but as with most players listed in this piece, managers will need to balance the potential upside of picking new arrivals with the relative safety of known Premier League quantities.
For every Michu there’s an Andriy Shevchenko.
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FPL New Signings 2026-27: Which Summer Transfers Offer the Best Fantasy Value? Opta Analyst.
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