SANTA BARBARA, Calif. — As fighting involving Iran, Israel and the United States continues, a UC Santa Barbara global studies professor says the conflict's effects could extend far beyond the Middle East, including economic consequences for Americans at home.
Professor Mark Juergensmeyer, a global studies scholar at UC Santa Barbara, says the roots of the current conflict stretch back years. He points to the U.S. withdrawal from the Obama-era Iran nuclear agreement as a key turning point that helped set the stage for today's tensions.
Juergensmeyer says early expectations that military strikes would quickly weaken Iran's government have not materialized.
Instead, he argues the conflict has strengthened hardline factions within Iran while fueling a cycle of retaliation between both sides.
He says Iran has increasingly relied on lower-cost military tactics, including drones, which have disrupted regional shipping and contributed to broader economic uncertainty.
Those disruptions, he says, could continue to affect Americans if the conflict drags on.
"We've been somehow suckered into a war that we don't want. Nobody understands. And we can see the devastation economically and also in America's prestige around the world," Juergensmeyer said. "This is a war where there are no winners. We're all losers. And it's a tragedy. It's sad to see."
Juergensmeyer says one of the most noticeable impacts for Americans could be higher gas prices and other economic pressures tied to instability in the region.
While he hopes diplomatic negotiations eventually resume, he does not expect a rapid peace agreement. Instead, he believes the fighting is more likely to gradually de-escalate over time than end with a single breakthrough.
"The biggest challenge now is finding a diplomatic path forward before the conflict expands further," he said.
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