Andy Burnham may want to focus on domestic reform when he enters Downing Street, but the question of defence and national security may soon become one of the first issues in his in-tray.
According to sources close to the Burnham court, the incoming prime minister has placed devolving power, reviving local economies and reindustrialising Britain above defence in his agenda. But within hours of walking into No 10, he will have a moment of reflection in his new HQ.
He will be taken to a small, windowless room to compose and sign the letter of last resort, the instruction to the commander of the nuclear submarine carrying the British Trident nuclear weapon as to when and under what circumstances he is to fire the weapon following a devastating nuclear attack on Britain.
Before he signs, the incoming prime minister will be advised by the Cabinet Secretary and a senior naval officer. “It is a sobering moment,” recalls the former cabinet secretary Lord Simon Case, “and prime ministers tend to be awed and changed by the experience”.
Although Burnham is yet to comment much on defence, there are multiple reasons why he and his team must get to grips with security now.
Andy Burnham gave a speech after being confirmed as the Labour Party’s new leader and the country’s next prime minister (Photo: Henry Nicholls/ AFP)Priorities vs the real world
There is volatility and uncertainty in Eastern Europe, Ukraine and the Middle East. As outright victory continues to elude him on the battlefront, Vladimir Putin’s behaviour is becoming more erratic. He is now claiming that the reasonable peace terms he offered in 2022 in Istanbul and the deal discussed with Trump in Alaska on 15 August last year are being ignored needlessly.
The war itself is at a tipping point: Putin’s generals are trying to cow Ukraine by continuous air attacks by drone and missiles on the cities while Kyiv and allies in Europe and the Gulf are running low on their stocks of Patriot air defence missiles.
Donald Trump has allowed Ukraine to be licensed to build their own Patriots. Unfortunately, this is next to useless. It takes over two years to build each new Patriot, at a cost of well over $1m (£744,000) each with a supply chain of more than 200 components to be assembled.
But nonetheless, Ukraine is striking back with increasingly effective missile strikes on refineries, dumps and supply hubs across western Russia. Crimea, annexed in 2014, is all but cut off as supply routes by road and sea are hit by drone strikes while shadow fleet tankers are being targeted in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.
On the battlefield, Russia’s losses at over 30,000 soldiers a month exceed the numbers that can be recruited as replacements. But despite the degrading military situation and amid casualty rates, Putin is now expected to bring in some form of national mobilisation to raise a fresh army of some 500,000 by October.
Despite all the rhetoric around Russia, this suggests Putin is ready to prolong any war – but is the UK ready to sustain Ukraine along with European allies or indeed defend itself from actual Russian attacks?
Ukraine has continued to hold out against Russia, sparking fears that Putin’s response may become more extreme as he faces a more difficult battlefield picture (Photo: Iryna Rybakova/AFP)Is the UK prepared?
Nato neighbours bordering Russia now expect an increase in provocations, so-called “false flag” operations, involving drone incidents and cyber attacks. Britain itself has been targeted. The disruption last August of the IT infrastructure of Jaguar Land Rover is now firmly attributed to Russian hackers, as is an arson attack on a warehouse in London, while Russian ships have been accused of loitering around critical infrastructure around our shores.
Although Burnham has made it clear he will set Labour on a path to domestic renewal, a creaking military, rising threats and uncertain support from the US may force him to change tack. After seizing a Russian tanker earlier this year, Putin may even try direct confrontation – is Burnham ready to face that?
To face growing external threats, the new Burnham government will need to have a coherent plan and capability to confront such perils, in wider Europe, the Gulf, the South Atlantic, and for home defence.
The whole tangled saga of the Defence Investment Plan (DIP) suggests there is still a long way to go before the UK can claim to have a comprehensive, credible defence strategy. Burnham approved the plan, but it is unclear if he will tinker with the deal when he enters Downing Street or revise it following a different economic picture.
The plan will provide an extra £14.5bn to the defence budget to make last year’s somewhat fantastical Strategic Defence Review (SDR) feasible – and bring the defence budget to around £70bn a year until 2030. Defence commanders had asked for an extra £18bn, but the Treasury said no.
Special Operations Forces practice their rapid deployment techniques with a Chinook helicopter ahead at RAF Leeming (Photo: Leon Neal/Getty)They are not even getting the declared £14bn, as a key hearing of the House of Commons’ Public Accounts Committee revealed last Thursday. Apparently, there is still a “shortfall” of £4.7bn and some £6.8bn has to be clawed from the budgets of other government departments. Filling the shortfall will be another test and the military will be looking to Burnham to resolve.
The committee was also told that the UK would meet the Nato target of spending 3 per cent of GDP on defence after 2030. By the same token, the UK would get no new F-35 Lightning strike planes for the RAF and Navy until “the early 2030s.” Questions remain, however, as to whether Burnham will meet the new Nato target of spending 3.5 per cent on defence by 2035 and how. Britain’s allies are already rearming at pace and Burnham will have to show them he is prepared to at least match them.
Prospects for the Navy’s surface fleet seem equally dim. The Royal Navy’s surface fleet remains under severe pressure. Ageing Type 23 frigates are being retired faster than delayed Type 26 replacements are arriving.
Taking a leaf out of the Ukrainian innovation playbook, the Ministry of Defence has at last started investing in fast-return programmes for drone and missile defences. These are destined for air defence in Ukraine itself and eventually for home UK defence.
Many in the Labour Government and party proclaim the need for lawfare rather than warfare, as if the one excludes the other. Homeland security was given scant attention in both the SDR and the DIP. This is despite the growing dangers from climate change, extreme weather, pandemic and the threats posed by new forms of violence and terror cults,
On defence and security, it’s no good putting off the hard decisions and hard spending until 2030, not with such a volatile threat as Putin’s Russia. Given the trouble our world is in, if we leave it to then, we may find it’s too late.
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