We’re down to the final four of the 2026 World Cup. Which of France, Spain, England and Argentina are likeliest to go all the way, though? We ask the Opta supercomputer.
We are 100 games into the 2026 World Cup. It has been a lot of fixtures, a lot of football, and a lot of fun, but we’re now closing in on the end of the tournament.
The quarter-finals were all quite closely contested. France eventually had too much for Morocco; Spain relied on super-sub Kylian Mbappé leading from the front. His eight goals is the joint most at this World Cup along with Fabián Ruiz had put La Roja in front. De Ketelaere’s header ended a run of 649 minutes without conceding a goal at the FIFA World Cup for Spain.
However, just as he did in the last 16 against Portugal, Merino came off the bench to score a late winner and send Spain through.
This will be just their second ever World Cup semi-final, after 2010, when they went on to win the tournament in South Africa.
France may be favourites to win, but Spain have set the outright longest unbeaten run in their history, avoiding defeat in each of their last 36 matches since a 1-0 friendly loss to Colombia in March 2024 (W27 D9).
Spain have a 42.3% chance of making it to the final, but interestingly, they are still second favourites to win the tournament (23.4%), so the supercomputer does believe it is likelier that the World Cup will be won by the victors of Tuesday’s semi-final in Dallas.
That’s not to say the other on Wednesday in Atlanta is just for the right to lose in the final, though.
England have not exactly been convincing throughout this World Cup, but arguably, that makes them even more dangerous. Even manager Thomas Tuchel didn’t think they played well in their comeback win over Norway, but they did enough to get through.
Or rather, Bellingham did enough for them to get through.
Bellingham’s Brilliance
World CupBellingham or Bust: England’s Man of ‘the Moment’ Delivers Yet Again
12 hours ago Ryan BensonAndreas Schjelderup put Norway in front in Miami with what was, let’s face it, a mis-hit cross, but Bellingham equalised before half-time with a typically excellent run into the box and finish. The Real Madrid star then reacted quickest to tap in following Ørjan Nyland spilling Julián Alvarez bent in a sublime goal from the edge of the box to nudge Argentina back in front.
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