Freddy Peralta and a handful of relievers figure to be the biggest focus of the Mets’ forthcoming sale. Peralta seems a near-lock to be moved before the August 3 trade deadline, while the team should field interest on the likes of A.J. Minter, Luke Weaver and Brooks Raley.
Beyond Peralta, Clay Holmes is the team’s most compelling rental trade candidate. Holmes has a $12MM player option that he’s virtually certain to decline. He’d be getting more buzz as a target for contenders if he were currently healthy. Holmes broke his right leg when he was hit by a comebacker in a start against the Yankees on May 15. That halted an excellent start to the season for the righty, who has a 2.39 earned run average over 52 2/3 innings.
Holmes avoided surgery and has resumed throwing bullpen sessions, according to the MLB.com injury tracker. He’s unlikely to pitch in an MLB game before the deadline but could make a minor league rehab start or two. Will Sammon and Tim Britton of The Athletic unsurprisingly write that other clubs are keeping an eye on Holmes’ progress as they evaluate a potential trade.
Despite the impending free agency, the Mets could opt to hang onto Holmes with an eye toward the 2027 season. The 33-year-old tells The Athletic that he’s open to in-season extension conversations that would take him off the trade block.
“I came here for a reason,” Holmes said. “You almost have the sense of some type of unfinished business. You want to make things right and do things well here because when you do win (in New York), it’s very exciting. I’ve seen that. It’s something that I hope to be a part of. I don’t know what that looks like. But that desire is still there.”
The Mets could also hold him and issue a qualifying offer if there’s no extension in place. That’ll land around $23.1MM, which may be a compelling one-year proposal for a pitcher who has played the last two seasons on $13MM salaries. However, the Mets wouldn’t have an answer on that until a couple weeks into the offseason.
As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a compensatory draft choice after the fourth round in 2027 if Holmes rejects a qualifying offer and signs with another team. That’s less valuable than what they’d get in trade this summer, when they could probably land a couple mid-tier prospects who are closer to big league readiness than whomever they select with a draft pick. If the Mets don’t make the QO, they’d obviously not receive any compensation if he walked in free agency.
It’d make sense for the front office to at least gauge Holmes’ asking price before putting him on the trade market. They’re not going to run a scorched earth rebuild. Nolan McLean and Christian Scott are the only two pitchers they can comfortably project for the 2027 rotation.
Peralta seems unlikely to be back after extension talks during the spring didn’t get far. Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga are under contract but were bounced from the rotation at points this year. Tylor Megill will be coming back from Tommy John surgery. Prospects Jonah Tong and Zach Thornton are unproven at the big league level.
Even if Holmes isn’t as good as this season’s ERA might suggest, he’d be a strong fit for the ’27 pitching staff. Holmes had a 3.53 ERA over 165 2/3 innings last year, his first as a full-time starter. The injury was purely bad luck and unrelated to his arm health. Holmes attacks the strike zone and gets a ton of ground-balls to compensate for slightly worse than average swing-and-miss rates. It’s the kind of reliable mid-rotation production the Mets have lacked this season.
Last summer brought an example of teams approaching this kind of situation differently. The Royals were getting calls on Seth Lugo in advance of a likely opt-out last July. They hammered out a two-year, $46MM extension a week before the deadline. The Guardians went the opposite route with Shane Bieber, who was finishing his rehab from Tommy John surgery as late July rolled around. They traded Bieber to the Blue Jays in advance of his own expected opt-out (which the pitcher wound up not taking after experiencing elbow fatigue in the playoffs).
Holmes will play all of next season at 34. He’ll very likely be capped at two or three years, which generally aligns with the Mets’ preference for short-term investments in pitchers. Holmes is a year older than Manaea was when the Mets re-signed him for $75MM (equivalent to roughly $66MM after deferrals). He’s two years younger than Lugo was when he signed his extension and the same age as Yusei Kikuchi when he commanded three years and $63MM from the Angels. Michael Wacha signed for three years and $51MM covering ages 33-35.
Manaea was the only of those pitchers who were attached to a qualifying offer, which could be a relative drag on Holmes’ market if the Mets issue one. He’d be ineligible for a QO if he’s traded. A strong finish could put a three-year deal in the $18-23MM annual range on the table, but the Mets might be reluctant to go that far without first seeing him back on the mound against a big league lineup. They probably won’t have that luxury before they need to decide on a trade.
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