FREDDY PERALTA TRADE RUMORS — I don’t need to tell you that the 2026 Chicago Cubs need to trade for pitching at the MLB Trade Deadline. If they have even MODESTLY serious hopes of qualifying for — let alone advancing through — the postseason, that much is clear.
The eventual return(s) of Jameson Taillon and Edward Cabrera could help the Cubs cover some innings between now and October, but only Ben Brown offers the sort of impact/upside needed to deliver any actual dominant playoff outings. And we don’t even know when he’ll return or how he’ll look when he finally does.
So, yes, they need to trade for a starter. Preferably someone who offers the potential of immediate impact. And while I maintain the belief that the Cubs should – and will – target guys with multiple years of control given the needs in 2027 and beyond, we’d be foolish to ignore the more affordable rental market out of hand. And to that end, there’s one guy who’s made sense for a long time: Freddy Peralta.
Freddy Peralta Trade Rumors
At The Athletic, Will Sammon writes about the increasing availability of former Brewers ace and current Mets starter Freddy Peralta, mentioning the Cubs as one of the most obvious suitors.
Let’s go over what he said and then talk about the fit/attractiveness in Chicago.
Peralta, despite carrying a 4.68 ERA, should still attract plenty of interest. Though Detroit Tigers’ ace Tarik Skubal profiles as the jewel of the market, there aren’t many other starters who have emerged yet as obvious trade candidates. Peralta, 30, set for free agency at the end of the season, stands out because of his track record and relatively modest salary (he is making $8 million this season). Also, the Mets (38-53) are looking like classic sellers in a league lacking them.
Multiple scouts and executives who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak freely on the topic said the Mets should end up doing fine on a return for Peralta. It’s unlikely they’ll score the equivalent of what they shipped to the Milwaukee Brewers over the winter for Peralta: pitcher Brandon Sproat and infielder Jett Williams, two top-100 prospects. But they should do OK.
About one-third of the 30 teams, if not more, are potential contenders needing rotation help. The Chicago Cubs, are desperate for it, making them an obvious team to watch for Peralta, who played six seasons under Chicago manager Craig Counsell in Milwaukee. The San Diego Padres scouted the Mets-Braves series. The Toronto Blue Jays make sense. And, especially because of Peralta’s salary, the Tampa Bay Rays are worth monitoring, too. That’s just naming a few.
Now, here’s the thing: At the outset of the season, Peralta would’ve seemed like a NO BRAINER Cubs target. Not only does he have a long track record of big league success (Cubs fans should know that well), he also played for Craig Counsell and only just turned 30 years old a month ago. Set to hit free agency this offseason, it may have even seemed like a great opportunity to jump out ahead of the recruiting process to get him to sign here full-time this winter. The fact that he doesn’t cost much (financially) is just an extra little boost, depending on if your name is Tom Ricketts or not.
Unfortunately, the Mets have broken him. Maybe. Okay, not really. But there’s one big issue, and it’s absolutely holding him back.
Freddy Peralta | Brad Penner-Imagn ImagesPeralta has made 19 starts this season, covering 100 innings even with a 4.68 ERA … and that is a FULL RUN higher than his career average (3.69 ERA). And while his 3.78 xERA remains solid (thanks to a near-elite 5% barrel rate and 87.8 MPH average exit velocity), the 4.29 FIP paints a different story. And that story is one of a totally evaporating strikeout rate.
From his debut in 2018 through last season, Freddy Peralata never had a strikeout rate lower than 27.1%. This season, however, he’s striking out just 22% of opposing hitters. A quick peek at the plate discipline metrics shows more chase than usual and normal rates of in-zone swing (both good things). But the contact has gone up quite a bit.
His contact rate on balls out of the zone, for example, sits at 54.9% for his career, but is 61.9% this season. Likewise, his 79.9% zone-contact rate is 84.6% this season. Now, the extra contact on non-strikes is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it’s almost certainly why his barrel rate is so much better. But the increased contact overall – potentially fouling off pitches, even – is likely leading to longer at-bats and more chances for opposing batters to do damage.
This is always such a tenuous conversation, though. It’s not a bad thing to get swings on pitches out of the zone, but you definitely also want a pitcher to have the ABILITY to miss bats. And lately, it seems, Peralta may have strayed too far in one direction.
But frankly, there appears to be an even bigger issue for Peralta this season, and that’s his struggles versus left-handed hitters.
For his career, lefties have hit just .209/.300/.354 (.290 wOBA) off Peralta. But this season, well, just look: .272/.331/.483 (.352 wOBA). That is a nightmarish development. And very strange one from a guy with such an impressive changeup.
Buuuuuuut here’s the thing. I’m not sure there’s actually much cause for concern here. Or, another way to say that, I think his changeup looks to be as effective against lefties as ever, just with some really horrendous luck.
This is all the data on Freddy Peralta’s changeup vs left-handed batters. Look at the difference in his actual batting average (.278) and SLG (.456) versus the expected AVG (.218) and SLG (.334) this year. It all boils down to an expected wOBA that is exactly in line with pretty much his entire career.
The Whiff% is also the same, and the velocity is maybe a little low, but mostly fine (i.e., not totally out of whack with some of the other seasons on record). The increased spin is throwing me a bit, but I just come back to the expected stats and the whiff rate and wonder … how in the world have lefties done this much damage? It doesn’t really make much sense to me.
Point there being, I think, as a pitcher, Peralta is a fine target for the Cubs despite his “ugly” results this year. Perhaps that’s overly informed by memories of him dominating in the NL Central for years. But I just don’t think he’s a true-talent mid-4.00s ERA guy. Not after looking at all of this.
But whether he’s the right trade target for the Cubs right now is another question entirely. Obviously – and I hope this is clear to everyone – the Cubs are better with Freddy Peralta than without him. They’re better over the regular season, and they’d have a MUCH better chance in the playoffs. Don’t kid yourself. But if the Cubs are going to spring for just one starter of consequence, you do have to wonder if (1) a rental is the way to go and (2) if Peralta is the best rental.
And to that end, I’m not so sure (1) it is or (2) he is.
But as Sammon mentions, the Mets are obvious sellers, the Cubs are obvious buyers, Peralta is an obvious trade chip, and the Cubs manager has history with this guy, in particular … someone they might just want to sign in the offseason anyway. So that is all to say, I would definitely keep Freddy Peralta top of mind over the next few weeks. And we’ll be sure to track his starts closely. I’d say there’s a pretty good chance, assuming the Cubs don’t crumble, that he becomes one of their primary targets before all is said and done.
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