The decrepit and dangerous airlines Trump could turn into money-makers ...Middle East

Donald Trump‘s deal to end the war with Iran could help him land lucrative new sales for US plane-maker Boeing from a desperate regime hoping to revitalise its notoriously rundown and dangerous fleet.

Under the recent agreement, Washington has waived some oil sanctions and released the first tranches of frozen Iranian assets for what Trump described as “humanitarian” purposes as part of ongoing talks, including the purchase of food from US farmers.

The deal has also raised Iranian hopes of securing new aircraft for its domestic fleet, which has had dozens of fatal crashes in recent decades.

Seyed Hossein Mousavian, who has served as one of Iran’s top diplomats in negotiations with the US, proposed on Wednesday that the arrangement be expanded to include aircraft.

“To transform this agreement into a major and lasting achievement for both nations, it is proposed that Iran and the United States conclude an agreement worth approximately $24 billion (£18.3 bn) for the purchase of 100 Boeing passenger aircraft, along with agricultural and pharmaceutical products,” he said.

“This could simultaneously help preserve the lives of Iranian citizens by modernising the country’s ageing air fleet, create economic opportunities for American companies, and build trust between the two countries.”

Trump’s aggressive Boeing diplomacy

Iran and its beleaguered airlines, which have struggled for decades to source planes and equipment under strict Western sanctions, could soon have an easier route to coveted American aircraft if diplomacy between the countries progresses.

Ken Katzman, a former US official who has helped to draft sanctions against the Islamic Republic, said he expected a deal to go ahead.

“Trump has been open to sanctions relief and he has helped other deals involving Boeing,” he said.

Since his return to the White House, Trump has used aggressive tariffs threats to push countries into trade deals, which have often included large orders from Boeing.

So far, he has signed deals with countries including the UK, which placed a $10 billion (£7.6bn) order as part of a trade deal in May 2025; South Korea’s Korean Air announced it would buy 103 new planes valued at $36.2 billion (£24bn) last summer, and Japan ordered 100 Boeing planes last July.

After Trump’s visit to China last month, where he was accompanied by the Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, the US President announced that Beijing would buy 200 Boeing aeroplanes, “with a promise of 750 planes, which would be by far the largest order ever”.

Ortberg said before the visit that he was counting on the Trump administration’s support to seal the deal.

A major deal with Iran could net the US aerospace giant billions – and score a political win for Trump.

Katzman, who served as an Iran analyst in the CIA, said a deal would be win-win: “That’s what the Iranians want, and Trump wants part of this deal to go towards American sales, so it meshes on both sides.”

Iran’s record of fatal crashes

Iran has long-held ambitions to secure US aircraft, having struck a deal for 100 Boeing jets at the time of Barack Obama’s 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement – which Trump cancelled during his first term.

Iranian officials pressed for aircraft purchases in talks with the US before Trump and Israel launched the war on 28 February. Tehran is likely to revisit the subject in ongoing talks, analysts believe.

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, head of economic think-tank Bourse & Bazaar and a specialist on Iranian politics, said “if there is progress in the negotiations and we move towards targeted sanctions relief… then absolutely Iran will be pursuing aviation deals.”

Iran’s domestic airlines were suffering under the effects of the Western sanctions regime, even before the war saw widespread destruction of passenger planes and infrastructure.

About 60 per cent of civilian aircraft were grounded with maintenance issues as of late 2025, according to research from Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, with the average age of a plane around 28 – twice the global average.

A lack of equipment and spare parts led to the widespread practice of “cannibalisation” of some aircraft to keep other planes in the air. A poor safety record – with dozens of fatal crashes since 2000 – led to EU restrictions on the national carrier, Iran Air.

Stuart Hatcher, Chief Data Officer and Chief Economist at the International Bureau of Aviation consultancy, said Iran’s fleet was in desperate need of “major renovation” as it had dwindled to around 130 operational aircraft with a growing proportion of aircraft “used as parts feedstock.”

Hatcher added that it was “difficult to know just how big the fleet would get if allowed to grow in response to true market demand. In theory, there is a minimum demand requirement for 150 aircraft, but arguably, the real requirement may exceed 200.”

Iran’s need for new planes has grown more pressing in the decade since Obama’s deal, says Batmanghelidj.

“The civil aviation fleet is 10 years older than it was at the time of the JCPOA…and a large number of civilian aircraft were damaged during the war, particularly airstrikes at Mehrabad airport, so planes that were in service are now out of service,” he said.

Katzman said: “You can make a case for new aircraft on humanitarian grounds as they have had a lot of crashes. The ageing fleet has been an issue for years.”

He said a deal would require specific sanctions waivers for electronic systems on the aircraft “so legislatively and legally it requires some work.”

“But this was included in the JCPOA, and I don’t see a reason why it couldn’t be offered this time.”

The US Department of Commerce and Boeing declined to comment.

The major manufacturers, Boeing and French firm Airbus, are likely to be wary after Trump torpedoed the previous deal with Iran, Batmanghelidj believes. But the large, untapped market represents a rare opportunity.

“There are very few countries with the pent-up demand that Iran has. So if you can put $50-60 billion of orders on the books for both Boeing and Airbus, they cannot turn their noses up at that,” he said.

Surge in plane smuggling

Tehran has sought to maintain its fleet through imports via shell companies and intermediaries in recent years, as well as second-hand purchases.

On Wednesday, Iranian aviation journalist Babak Taghvaee reported that carrier Mahan Air had received the first of 10 Boeing jets previously used by Saudi airline Saudia.

Taghvaee told The i Paper there had been a recent uptick in new aircraft arriving in the country via circuitous routes to evade sanctions.

“There has been a sudden surge in attempts by various Iranian plane smugglers to acquire and smuggle passenger aircraft into Iran over the past several weeks,” he said.

“It appears that some businessmen capable of getting loans from both national and private banks due to their ties to the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] have acquired enough budget for purchasing passenger aircraft for their own use or for dry leasing to other Iranian carriers.”

Taghvaee said the first secondhand Boeing to arrive this week was purchased from the Saudi airline by an Emirati company and then sold to a “Malawi-based front company of Mahan Air.”

The airline did not respond to a request for comment.

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