Japan, Sweden and the Netherlands are all likely to qualify for the knockouts ahead of the final round of Group F fixtures at the FIFA World Cup. Look ahead to Friday’s potential table-decider with our Japan vs Sweden prediction and preview.
Japan vs Sweden: The Key Insights
Japan go into this clash as favourites, according to the Opta supercomputer, winning 51.9% of simulations compared to Sweden‘s 22.2%. Friday’s contest in Dallas will be Japan and Sweden’s first meeting at the World Cup. Following a draw with the Netherlands and a win over Tunisia, Japan have a chance to go through the group stage of a World Cup unbeaten for only the second time, after first doing so as co-hosts in 2002.A top-two finish in Group F is at stake when Japan face Sweden at Dallas Stadium on Friday, with the winner set to receive a big boost ahead of the World Cup knockout stages.
Hajime Moriyasu’s side are currently second in the group ahead of their clash with Sweden and remain unbeaten at the tournament, having drawn 2-2 with leaders the Netherlands before thumping already-eliminated Tunisia 4-0 in their last outing.
Junya Ito also got on the scoresheet to put Samurai Blue in a commanding position ahead of the first knockout round.
Despite their position, there is still plenty at stake for Japan. Avoiding defeat against Sweden would see them complete only their second unbeaten World Cup group-stage campaign, after first doing so as co-hosts in 2002 (W2 D1).
Moriyasu knows the value that could bring in terms of confidence heading into the knockouts and will be keen for his side to extend their ongoing nine-match unbeaten run across all competitions.
In the World Cup, Japan have not suffered defeat in their last four matches (W2 D2) and are on the verge of becoming just the second AFC nation to go five consecutive matches without losing, after South Korea’s six-match run between 1998 and 2002.
Standing in their way is a Sweden side who have experienced mixed fortunes.
Graham Potter’s team opened with a bang, blowing Tunisia out of the water 5-1 before receiving a taste of their own medicine in a 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands on Matchday 2.
In doing so, Sweden became only the second team in World Cup history to win and lose matches by at least a four-goal margin at the same tournament.
The first instance, incidentally, also involved Sweden, who beat Cuba 8-0 before losing 5-1 to Hungary in 1938.
Sweden only actually faced 10 shots against the Netherlands, but seven of them were on target and five went in; it’s an area in which Potter will insist on improvement, especially against a dynamic Japanese attack.
Indeed, Samurai Blue have already had eight different players contribute to goals, equalling their highest total in a single World Cup edition (also eight in 2022).
One of their standout performers has been Ueda, whose three goal involvements (two goals, one assist) is the joint most by a Japan player at a single World Cup. His two goals is also a joint-tournament record for the nation.
For Sweden, it’s been Alexander Isak who has provided the most attacking inspiration. The striker has scored once and tallied three assists, already eclipsing the most goal involvements previously recorded by a Swedish player at a World Cup (since 1966).
The Opta supercomputer gives both Japan and the Netherlands a 100% chance of progressing to the round of 32, while Sweden are assigned a 91.9% probability as Group F’s top three sides look set to advance.
Japan vs Sweden Head-to-Head
This will be the first World Cup meeting between Japan and Sweden, though the two nations have faced each other five times previously.
Their first encounter dates to a clash at the 1936 Olympics – known as the “Miracle of Berlin” – when Japan fought from 2-0 down to win 3-2. Samurai Blue are winless in all four meetings since then for what it’s worth, though the most recent was way back in May 2002 (ending 1-1).
Japan are unbeaten across their four matches against European sides since the start of the 2022 World Cup (W2 D2), including a draw with the Netherlands earlier this tournament. Their two victories in this span equal how many they managed across their previous 10 clashes with European nations.
Similarly, Sweden have never lost to Asian opposition at the World Cup (W2 D1). Their most recent win over an AFC nation was a 1-0 defeat of South Korea in 2018.
Japan vs Sweden Prediction
The Opta supercomputer backs Japan as favourites to win and seal a spot in the next round, with Moriyasu’s side winning in 51.9% of the 25,000 pre-match simulations.
Sweden, meanwhile, triumphed just 22.2% of the time, with a draw accounting for the remaining 25.9% of simulations.
Japan vs Sweden Squads
Japan: Zion Suzuki, Keisuke Osako, Tomoki Hayakawa, Yukinari Sugawara, Shogo Taniguchi, Ko Itakura, Yuto Nagatomo, Tsuyoshi Watanabe, Ayumu Seko, Hiroki Ito, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Junnosuke Suzuki, Wataru Endo, Ao Tanaka, Ritsu Doan, Daichi Kamada, Yuito Suzuki, Kaishu Sano, Takefusa Kubo, Keisuke Goto, Daizen Maeda, Keito Nakamura, Junya Ito, Ayase Ueda, Koki Ogawa, Kento Shiogai.
Sweden: Jacob Widell Zetterström, Viktor Johansson, Kristoffer Nordfeldt, Gustaf Lagerbielke, Victor Lindelöf, Isak Hien, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Daniel Svensson, Hjalmar Ekdal, Carl Starfelt, Eric Smith, Herman Johansson, Lucas Bergvall, Ken Sema, Jesper Karlström, Yasin Ayari, Mattias Svanberg, Besfort Zeneli, Elliot Stroud, Taha Ali, Alexander Isak, Benjamin Nygren, Anthony Elanga, Viktor Gyökeres, Alexander Bernhardsson, Gustaf Nilsson.
Japan vs Sweden Predicted Lineups
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Japan vs Sweden Prediction: World Cup 2026 Match Preview Opta Analyst.
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