The Orioles haven’t picked this high very often in recent years, but when they have, they’ve shown they know exactly what they want. At No. 7, Baltimore lands inside the top 10 for the first time since taking Adley Rutschman first overall in 2019.
There’s no second first-rounder this time, with the Competitive Balance pick shipped to Tampa Bay in the Shane Baz trade, so this one selection carries weight. Here’s how the board could set up for them.
How the Board Sets Up for the Orioles
By the time pick No. 7 arrives, the top of the board has usually thinned in a specific way. Shortstops Roch Cholowsky and Grady Emerson and catcher Vahn Lackey are the near-locks to go in some order at the top, and a run on the best college bats tends to follow. That’s the exact pool Baltimore lives in. The question at No. 7 isn’t whether the Orioles take a college position player; it’s which one is left.
The Most Likely Pick
The Orioles have a type, and the industry has stopped pretending otherwise. MLB Pipeline’s June 18 mock sends Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress to Baltimore at No. 7, noting the Orioles have dipped into the college-bat bucket with their first pick in six of the last seven drafts. Pipeline frames the choice as turning to college bats like Burress, Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron, and possibly Arkansas catcher Ryder Helfrick, with Burress carrying one of the highest floors in the college crop, Lebron the highest ceiling, and Helfrick the best glove behind the plate.
Drew Burress of Yarmouth-Dennis rounds third, celebrating his homerun against Orleans with third base coach Steven Phillips. Ron Schloerb/Cape Cod TimesBurress is the cleanest fit. He pairs production, raw power, speed, and defensive value in a package that mirrors what Baltimore has chased for years, even if he’s literally overshadowed by Georgia Tech teammate Lackey. He’s the high-floor, quick-moving bat that makes sense for a team built to win now.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reads the Orioles the same way. In his June mock, McDaniel notes that Baltimore takes only position players at high picks and that essentially four college hitters fit here: Tyler Bell, Lebron, Burress, and Helfrick. He gives Burress the edge on the same logic, the best blend of production, raw power, speed, and defensive value, which is both what he’d target and what the Orioles seem to prefer. McDaniel adds that he wouldn’t expect a pitcher to make sense yet, with the rest of that college-bat group likely flying off the board first.
The Wild Card
The interesting wrinkle is upside versus floor. If Baltimore wants to gamble, ESPN points to Lebron as the ceiling play, a switch-hitting shortstop with red-hot numbers down the stretch after a shoulder injury, posting close to a 1.100 OPS since mid-April with average raw power that plays up in games. MLB Pipeline calls this close to Lebron’s floor, the kind of high-ceiling, bat-questions profile the Orioles have tapped into before.
Justin Lebron (1) fields a ground ball and throws to first for an out as the Crimson Tide played Washington State at Sewell-Thomas Stadium.The counterweight is risk. Lebron entered last year as a possible 1-1 candidate before an uneven junior season raised real questions about his hit tool and his tendency to chase spin out of the zone. That’s the tension at No. 7: take the safe, polished Burress, or bet on Lebron’s louder tools and hope the contact comes around. Either way, it’s a college bat, and either way, it’s a profile Baltimore knows how to develop.
Bottom Line
The Orioles aren’t reinventing anything at No. 7. They’ll take a college position player, almost certainly, and the only real debate is floor against ceiling. Burress is the pick that fits the fingerprint cleanest, a high-floor bat ready to move. Lebron is the swing for a star. In a class this deep in college hitters at the exact spot Baltimore picks, that’s a good problem to have.
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