Crimea is burning and Putin’s grip is weakened ...Middle East

For the millions of tourists who usually head to the “Russian Florida” for their summer holidays, there will be a nasty surprise awaiting them this year.

The Ukrainian military is ramping up strikes against Russian-occupied Crimea, causing a crisis for locals and visitors on the peninsula as Kyiv seeks to drive Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.

Ukraine’s troops have used domestically produced “Flamingo” missiles and data-enabled drones to target oil facilities, road and rail corridors, ferries, key bridges and other infrastructure in and around Crimea, forcing Russian authorities to suspend fuel sales to the public and announce a total ban on children’s summer camps this week.

The Ukrainian Defence Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, warned last week that “for the Russians, the real hell is just beginning”, with President Volodymyr Zelensky sharing footage of Kyiv’s forces launching co-ordinated strikes across the peninsula on social media.

The Ukrainians have been targeting Crimea since the start of the full-scale invasion, but advances in missile and drone tech mean they can now focus on a place dear to many Russians’ hearts. Tourists and locals have been using social media to complain about the impact of the strikes.

Last night, our long-range sanctions targeted the occupiers’ military logistics, oil industry, and air defense. All of this is a just response to Russia’s brutal attacks against our people. I thank the warriors of the Security Service of Ukraine, the Unmanned Systems Forces, the… pic.twitter.com/90APquETQT

Combined with the recent deadly attacks on Moscow and St Petersburg, the campaign aims to drive a wedge between Putin and his people and put pressure on Russian military supply lines in an area that is both militarily and symbolically critical.

Targeting Crimea is hurting Putin’s pride

When it comes to Crimea, symbolism is as important as strategy. By targeting a region central to the personal brand of President Putin, these attacks are a means of forcing him to enter negotiations on ending the war

The importance of Crimea to Russians goes back centuries with control of the peninsula allowing naval forces to project military power and control trade routes across the Black Sea and beyond, as well as providing access to the region’s oil and gas resources according to Domitilla Sagramoso, senior lecturer at the department of War Studies at King’s College London and expert in Russian foreign and security policy.

“Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, which occurred without any bloodshed, was seen as his masterstroke. For Putin, Crimea is very much associated with this moment of his highest popularity and glory,” Sagramoso told The i Paper.

The region, long popular for a summer getaway and known as the “Florida of the Russians”, has increased in importance as a holiday destination since the war started, with many Russians unable to travel freely outside the country.

It is also seen as the home of the Russian Orthodox Church and a symbol of historical Russian imperialism. Crimea is also home to many retired Russian military and government officials, according to Sagramoso.

A fatal blow to Putin’s war plan

Losing control of strategically important Crimea would also be a fatal blow to Putin’s war plans, experts warn.

Russian forces have been using Crimea as a launch pad for attacks on Ukrainian territory along the Black Sea coast to the west and into the contested Donbas region to the east, and the peninsula was one of the main routes for invading Russian forces at the start of the full-scale conflict in 2022.

“What is important from the military point of view is that the Ukrainians are able to weaken Russia and be in a stronger position eventually to enter into negotiations. They might not be thinking about conquering Crimea but of putting the necessary pressure on Russia to negotiate, saying, ‘if you don’t negotiate now, you risk losing Crimea,’” said Sagramoso.

This month, a Ukrainian drone unit has repeatedly hit a key road and bridge near Chonhar that links Crimea with the rest of occupied Ukraine. Russian authorities have admitted damage to the bridge at Chonhar and others, repeatedly suspending traffic along targeted routes.

The attacks on the Russian military’s logistics chains may already be having an impact and signalling a shift in approach from the Ukrainian leadership.

Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a former British diplomat and senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank, believes the decision by Ukraine to focus on attacking supply routes from Crimea to the Russian front line is beginning to pay off.

“Previously something has been holding the Ukrainians back – probably a wish not to do anything which would cause a new eruption in their relationship with [US President Donald] Trump – but there are signs now that Zelensky is abandoning these self-imposed shackles,” he told The i Paper.

“If Ukraine can destroy that land bridge around Armiansk, and the road and rail bridges at Chonhar and Henichhesk in the north-east of the ‘island’ then that will leave only the famous Kerch road and rail bridges built under Putin after 2014.

“This is what Ukraine is now doing and already the land route north of Mariupol and is said to be littered with burnt-out vehicles making the logistics chain extremely perilous,” said Willasey-Wilsey.

“Once successfully done, Zelensky will decide whether to destroy the Kerch bridges,” he added. “There have been several previous attempts but drone technology – and the range of domestically produced Flamingo missiles – now makes it achievable with a high degree of certainty.”

Strikes show Ukraine’s newfound confidence

Melanie Garson, associate professor of International Security & Conflict Resolution atUniversity College London, said smart Ukrainian tactics were forcing the Russians to look for alternative routes for logistics.

“Ukraine is hitting both sides of the Kerch bridge, in particular energy supplies, with the objective of isolating Crimea from Russia. The Russians would have to look at alternative routes to move troops and supplies which make them much more vulnerable,” she said.

Garson said these strikes demonstrated a newfound confidence from President Zelensky’s administration, which was now finding a way to alter the narrative around the war.

“Moscow has considered Russian control of the area to be a non-negotiable, but the current wave of successful attacks challenges that narrative. It reshapes assumptions about a future agreement and gives Ukraine much better bargaining power,” said Garson.

“With Ukraine having seized the opportunity to provide counter-drone tech to Gulf states, it has gained in confidence in the war against Russia. With the US attention also primarily concerned with the Gulf, and Russia seemingly out of favour with the Trump administration, Ukraine seems to be taking advantage to push forwards as much as possible,” she said.

But despite the apparent recent successes, Sagramoso warns that the Russians will be looking to quickly turn the tables and will put more resources into the region to counter the Ukrainian gains.

“The Russians might have a difficult tourist season in Crimea, and it will be hard for people living there, but in coming months they might have the capabilities to hit back because the war is a constant struggle over who has the most advanced technology”, she said.

However, Sagramoso believes the combined effect of the strikes on Moscow and St Petersburg and the attacks on Crimea could be crucial.

“Russians have been under strain in Moscow, in St Petersburg, in areas of the front line and now Crimea. So, the war in the last month has certainly reached parts of Russia which hadn’t been reached before.”

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