ROCHESTER, N.Y. – Maybe you are all thinking about spending more time around the pool this summer. In recent years, summer has generally been good to us here in the Rochester area.
If you look back over the last 55 years, dating to 1970, historical data shows a steady increase in the number of above-normal summer days. While the numbers vary from year to year, the long-term trend reveals that we now average about 10 more above-normal temperature days each summer than we did in 1970. The same trend appears in average temperatures. Although there are annual fluctuations, the data shows that our summer temperatures are running about 1.5 degrees above what was considered normal in 1970.
This summer, however, could be a little different.
The News10NBC First Alert Weather Team is closely monitoring sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. You may have heard of El Niño, the periodic warming of equatorial waters in the Pacific. Current measurements suggest this El Niño could become very strong. In fact, some meteorologists, oceanographers, and climatologists refer to it as a “super El Niño.”
A significant El Niño can influence weather patterns around the globe for several seasons. Historically, when El Niño conditions have affected Rochester, summer temperatures have been slightly below normal, while showers and thunderstorms have occurred more frequently.
It is difficult to predict seasonal outcomes, but even looking ahead through the end of June, the outlook favors below-normal temperatures and wetter-than-normal conditions. It is important to note we will not enjoy some beautiful summer weather from time to time. But it does suggest that stretches of sunshine may be interrupted more often by clouds, showers, and thunderstorms than we typically experience this time of year.
If this pattern continues into July and August, the summer of 2026 could end up feeling quite different from many of the warmer summers we have experienced over the past several decades.
First Alert Weather In-Depth: Will El Niño change Rochester’s summer? WHEC.com.
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