The New York Fed’s May Survey of Consumer Expectations found deterioration both in households’ perceptions of their current financial situation and in their year-ahead expectations about that situation, according to the release.
The share of households saying in May that their current financial situation was worse reached the highest level since January 2023. In addition, the share saying their situation was better decreased slightly, the release said.
When asked to look a year ahead, a greater share of consumers said in May that they expect their financial situation to worsen. The net share of households expecting their situation to improve versus worsen dropped to its lowest level since October 2022, according to the release.
The PYMNTS Intelligence report “Income Instability Is Redefining the Paycheck-to-Paycheck Economy” found that 66% of U.S. consumers live paycheck to paycheck and that consumers are managing not only higher costs but also income that arrives in less predictable ways. Hourly pay, contract work, gig platforms and commission-based earnings now shape the financial lives of a larger share of households, the report said.
Another change reported Monday by the New York Fed had to do with the labor market.
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In its May survey, households’ mean perceived probability of losing one job in the next 12 months increased by 0.5 percentage point to 15.1%. That percentage is above the 12-month trailing average of 14.4%, per the release, per the release.
The mean perceived probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months rose to its highest level since February 2023, with the figure increasing by 2.6 percentage points to 20.8%, according to the release.
“The increase was broad-based across age, education and income groups,” the New York Fed said in the release.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost dropped to its lowest reading since December 2025. The figure decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 43.7%, the release said.
The Conference Board said Monday that while the labor market remains resilient, there were signs in May that employment may decrease in the coming months. The organization said a decline in its Employment Trends Index was primarily driven by a decrease in the share of small firms reporting that jobs are “not able to be filled right now.”
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