Nolan Arenado‘s no-trade clause was the most obvious obstacle for the Cardinals in their attempts to trade the third baseman during the last two offseasons, as Arenado (especially during the winter of 2024-25) had a very short list of acceptable landing spots. It didn’t help that Arenado was also owed a substantial amount of money, and St. Louis ended up eating $31MM of the $42MM remaining on the third baseman’s contract once Arenado finally approved a trade to the Diamondbacks last January.
The bigger-picture issue hovering over the situation, however, was simply the fact that Arenado looked like a player in decline. After a superb 2022 season with the Cards that saw Arenado finish third in NL MVP voting, Arenado dropped down to a modest 107 wRC+ in 2023, then a 102 wRC+ in 2024, and then an ugly 84 wRC+. It was just the third time in Arenado’s career that he had delivered below-average offense, with the other two instances being his 2013 rookie season with the Rockies, and the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.
Apart from an elite strikeout rate, Arenado’s 2025 numbers were pretty ugly across the board. He hit .237/.289/.377 with 12 home runs over 436 plate appearances in what ended up as his final season in St. Louis, and his barrel and hard-hit ball rates each ranked only in the 12th percentile of all hitters. Arenado’s numbers in those two categories were pretty similar in 2024, making it consecutive seasons of diminished power.
On the plus side, Arenado’s third base glovework was still strong, even if down from his Platinum Glove-winning prime years. So in swinging that trade with the Cardinals, the D’Backs could at least count on Arenado for solid defense and a veteran voice in the clubhouse. Even if Arenado’s bat was a question mark, it was a flier the Diamondbacks were willing to take given the modest $11MM price tag ($5MM in 2026, $6MM in 2027) and the fact that Arizona hadn’t been able to land such third base targets as Alex Bregman or Brendan Donovan.
Through two months of the season, Arenado seems to have benefited from the change of scenery. The 35-year-old has turned back to the clock to some extent by hitting .275/.357/.462 with seven home runs over 196 PA, translating to a 130 wRC+. If Arenado can keep this going over a full year, the 130 wRC+ would tie the third-highest mark of his 14-year big league career.
There was some thought that the move to Chase Field might spark Arenado’s bat, and sure enough, he has done more damage in a more hitter-friendly home ballpark. Arenado has a .934 OPS across 94 home PA, as opposed to a .711 OPS in 102 PA away from Phoenix.
His overall .360 wOBA is also notably higher than his .339 xwOBA, so some regression is probably inevitable (though .339 is still comfortably above the league average). Arenado still isn’t making contact with much authority, as his barrel rate is only up to 6.5% from 4% in 2025, and his hard-hit ball rate has actually dropped from 32.6% last year to 31.9% this year. While he is still making plenty of contact, Arenado’s 17.9% strikeout rate is on pace to be the second-highest of his career.
When Arenado has squared the ball, however, he has capitalized. As per Statcast’s launch angle sweet spot metric, Arenado’s number is up to 38.4% this season, putting him in the 81st percentile of all batters. (Comparatively, Arenado’s 31.5 LAS% in 2025 put in the 16th percentile.)
All of this success comes after a very rough opening two weeks to the season, as Arenado started his D’Backs tenure with a .392 OPS over his first 52 plate appearances. It was around this time that Arenado and the hitting coaches made some swing changes, with the third baseman telling Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he was including too much head movement and not enough of his back hip while swinging. A new pregame routine was also introduced with the goal of, as Arenado put it, “trying to see shapes and pitches before I step in the box, so when I step in the box, it doesn’t feel like it’s the first time I’m doing it.”
Time will tell if Arenado can keep this going over an extended period of time, though his hot streak has now been going for almost a month and a half. Arenado’s production has basically offset an extended slump from shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, and helped keep the Snakes in a wild-card position and a game behind the Padres for second place in the NL West.
Even if Arenado does start to cool off, the D’Backs don’t need him to be the All-Star of his prime years — they just need him to produce like a $5MM player. Rather than looking like a plan B or C for the Diamondbacks’ third base needs, the Arenado trade is now shaping up as a nice bargain for the Snakes, and one of the cannier moves of the Arizona offseason.
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