The 2026 US Open is three weeks away, and the betting board at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is starting to take its final shape. Golf’s third major tees off Thursday, June 18 in Southampton, New York, with the final round on Sunday, June 21. Coverage runs on NBC and Peacock. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy sit atop the board as the clear top two favorites, with a compelling mid-tier group forming just below them and several intriguing longshot angles already drawing analytical attention.
The Course: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Shinnecock Hills is one of the oldest and most respected golf courses in America, hosting the US Open for the sixth time in 2026. The most recent edition was in 2018, when Brooks Koepka won at 1-over par, and Tommy Fleetwood finished one stroke behind him in one of the more heartbreaking near-misses in recent major championship history. The course is a William Flynn design that plays as a Par 70 stretching over 7,400 yards across exposed, windswept terrain in the Hamptons. It is as close to a links-style layout as the US Open gets on American soil.
The greens are historically fast and treacherous. The rough is penal. The wind off the Atlantic is a genuine factor on almost every hole. Shinnecock punishes mistakes severely and rewards players who can manage their games around the course rather than attacking every pin. Ball-striking precision, wind management, and bogey avoidance are the primary separators. One bad hole can unravel an otherwise excellent round in ways that more forgiving venues simply do not produce.
DeChambeau finished T25 here in 2018, which is the most relevant modern competitive data available for the field. Most players in this year’s field have never competed at Shinnecock Hills in a professional event, which compresses the course history advantage and makes recent form and statistical profile more important than usual in building a betting model.
The Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+350 to +500)
Scheffler’s price varies widely across the market, from +350 at bet365 to +500 at FanDuel, reflecting genuine disagreement about how to price the world number one at a venue with limited modern competitive data. He is seeking the career Grand Slam at Shinnecock, which would make him the seventh player in history to win all four major championships. He has finished inside the top 10 in four of the last five US Opens, including runner-up finishes at LACC in 2023 and Pinehurst in 2024, and a T7 at Oakmont last year. The consistency at this specific major is among the best records in the field.
The honest concern with Scheffler heading into June is a win drought stretching back to January. He has had multiple close calls in signature events and has not converted a contention window into a victory since early in the season. His ball-striking numbers remain elite but the putting has been the variable separating him from closing out tournaments. Shinnecock’s fast greens will put that putting form under maximum pressure on the most demanding stage available.
At +350 he is the tightest price for any US Open favorite since the market opened for 2026. At +500 the implied probability sits closer to 17 percent, which is more defensible for a major where the winner has historically come from a wide range of the board.
May 4, 2018; Charlotte, NC, USA; Rory McIlroy watches his ball after a pitch out of the sand on the fifth hole during the second round of the Wells Fargo Championship golf tournament at Quail Hollow Club. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY SportsRory McIlroy (+750 to +950)
McIlroy is the reigning Masters champion and arrives at Shinnecock on the strength of one of the more complete seasons any player in the world has put together. He has won the Masters, contended in multiple other events, and arrives as the most proven links-style player in the field given his Open Championship victories and comfort with wind-exposed courses that demand creative shot-making.
His US Open record is the part of the case that demands scrutiny. He has not won this championship since his dominant 2011 performance at Congressional, where he won by eight shots at 16-under par, a record still standing as the lowest 72-hole total in US Open history. That drought is fifteen years long and spans the most dominant stretch of his career. Shinnecock in particular presents a significant challenge given how the course demands patience and course management over the aggressive, distance-leveraging style that defines McIlroy at his best.
At +750 to +950, the market is acknowledging both the talent and the specific history at this major. He is the second most likely winner by the market’s estimation and the argument for him is straightforward if you believe his links-style comfort transfers to Shinnecock’s exposed terrain.
The Middle of the Board
Jon Rahm at +1100 to +1400 is the third favorite and carries a meaningful Shinnecock angle. He finished T2 at the PGA Championship at Aronimink two weeks ago, which is his best major result of 2026, and his creative shot-making around links-style designs is arguably better suited to this venue than any other player in the mid-range. He won the 2023 Masters and the 2021 US Open, making him one of two players in the field who has already won on a course that demands this specific combination of skills.
Cameron Young at +1400 is one of the more interesting analytical plays in the mid-tier. His form this season has been the best of his career with multiple wins and consistent results in Signature Events. The question is how his aggressive, power-based game translates to a course that historically rewards patience and precision over distance. He is long enough to take club out of his hands on several approach shots, which has historically been a meaningful advantage at Shinnecock.
Xander Schauffele at +1600 and Bryson DeChambeau at +1600 round out the top tier. Schauffele has been knocking on the door at majors for years and his tee-to-green consistency is a genuine fit for Shinnecock’s demands. DeChambeau won the US Open in 2020 and 2024, making him a two-time champion in this event, but missed the cut at Oakmont last year and has not been at peak form for stretches of 2026.
Longer Odds Worth Noting
Brooks Koepka at +2200 to +3300 is the defending Shinnecock champion from 2018 and a five-time major winner. His US Open record is the best of any active player in the field and the venue suits his methodical, mistake-avoiding style. His 2026 form has been inconsistent but he has a documented history of rising to his best golf at this specific major. The course history advantage here is as strong as any player in the field.
Tommy Fleetwood at +2200 is the most discussed value play on the board among analysts this week. He finished solo second at Shinnecock in 2018, one shot behind Koepka, and his game is built for this exact type of challenge. He ranks among the leaders on Tour in approach play and his comfort on links-style terrain is genuine. The first major win remains elusive for Fleetwood but Shinnecock is the venue where his profile fits most clearly.
Jun 14, 2024; Pinehurst, North Carolina, USA; Tommy Fleetwood reacts after a putt on the 5th hole during the second round of the U.S. Open golf tournament at Pinehurst No. 2. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY SportsAaron Rai at +7000 to +8000 is the reigning PGA Championship winner after his 200-to-1 upset at Aronimink two weeks ago. The market has him as a longshot despite his recent major title, which reflects how unexpected his PGA win was and how limited his prior major record has been. His odds before the PGA Championship were +17500, so even at +7000 heading into Shinnecock, he has moved meaningfully on the strength of the win.
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Responsible Gambling and Bankroll Management
The US Open generates some of the heaviest golf betting volume of the year. With three weeks until the first round, the board will continue to move as late-season results and injury news filter through the market. If you are considering futures positions ahead of Shinnecock, getting your price before the Charles Schwab Challenge and Memorial Tournament results shape the market is worth thinking about. Set a clear major championship budget and allocate it deliberately across a range of prices rather than concentrating on the short favorites at the top of the board.
If gambling ever feels difficult to manage, free and confidential support is available at ncpgambling.org. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible Gaming Resources
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