Arsenal are massive favourites to beat Burnley on Monday night, given an 87.8% chance of victory by the Opta supercomputer. Does that make this a foregone conclusion before a ball has even been kicked?
Arsenal head into their final two games of 2025-26 knowing that wins in both will secure the Premier League title.
They begin the remainder of their run-in at home to Burnley on Monday night, and they could scarcely have an easier task ahead of them – in the eyes of the Opta supercomputer at least.
Nobody at Arsenal will consider this an “easy” game, and nothing will be taken for granted. For a match that manager Mikel Arteta may normally have used as an opportunity to rotate, he will surely be fielding his strongest possible team to reduce any chance of a slip-up.
Burnley have already been relegated, and may still be caught by Wolves, who have had one of the worst seasons in Premier League history, having been bottom of the table since week two of 2025-26. Only two points separate them at the foot of the Premier League, meaning Burnley could yet – somehow – have an even worse campaign than one of the worst teams this league has ever seen.
They head to the Emirates on Monday night having won only two and lost 13 of their 18 away Premier League games this season. They are currently ranked as the 93rd best team in the world according to the Opta Power Rankings, four places below Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami and just ahead of Danish champions Aarhus GF. They don’t pose much threat to the title hopefuls.
The Opta supercomputer wholeheartedly agrees, too. In 10,000 simulations of Monday night’s match at the Emirates, Arsenal won 87.8% of the time. In five seasons of the Opta supercomputer overseeing Premier League action, going back through 1,888 match predictions, only once before has any team had a greater chance of winning a game than this.
That was Manchester City at home to Leeds in May 2023, at the end of the 2022-23 season. Heading into that game, City were one point ahead of Arsenal at the top with five games remaining and one game in hand on Arsenal. The champions elect weren’t quite under the same pressure to win as Arsenal are this season, but with tougher games to come, they didn’t want to miss this chance to get three points.
City were given an 88.1% chance of victory, and within 27 minutes, they were 2-0 up. They were able to take their foot off the gas, and although Leeds got a late consolation, they saw out a comfortable win. Leeds, fighting for their lives, having, in their desperation, just given Sam Allardyce the manager’s job, had only 19.1% possession and managed only four shots.
Looking at the most likely wins over the last five Premier League seasons, the top 14 – according to Opta supercomputer win percentages – have all won. Each of them were Manchester City, Arsenal or Liverpool at home.
However, Arsenal won’t take too much hope from their entry in the top 10: Wolves’ visit to the Emirates back in December. They were given an 85.4% chance of victory by the supercomputer and, although they eventually ran out 2-1 victors, they required two own goals, one of which was scored in the 93rd minute, to edge past a side who had taken just two points from their first 15 games of the season.
The highest chance a team was given of victory by the supercomputer in a game that they didn’t end up winning was City’s 82.1% ahead of their home game against Southampton in September 2021. The reigning champions hosted Ralph Hasenhüttl’s newly-promoted and winless Saints, but hit the target with only one of their 16 attempts on goal, and struggled to a goalless draw.
The highest Opta supercomputer prediction numbers when the pre-match favourites lost was 80.7% for City before their home defeat to Brentford in November 2022. That day, an Ivan Toney brace earned Brentford, in only their second season in the Premier League, the most unlikely victory – in the eyes of the supercomputer – in any game between 2021-22 and 2025-26.
It remains the only example in the last five Premier League seasons of a team losing a game after the supercomputer predicted their chances at 80% or higher.
So, heading into Monday night’s game, Arsenal should be supremely confident. They have won nine out of nine home league games this season against teams currently in the bottom half of the table, doing so by an aggregate score of 23-2. After a little wobble last month, they have won four of their last five games without conceding a single non-penalty goal.
There will, of course, be concern among the home fans that Arsenal will miss this huge opportunity. Nerves will be high after so many near-misses, and Burnley have taken points from away games against Chelsea, Liverpool and Bournemouth this season – top-half teams they’d be expected to lose to.
But facing Arsenal is a different ball game entirely, and an in-form Arsenal side who will be going all out for the win from the very first minute pose a challenge unrivalled in the Premier League.
The result in this game isn’t quite a foregone conclusion, but it’s about as close to one as you’re likely to see.
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