As Labour Party MPs respond to their disastrous local election results, they should look across the Atlantic and reflect upon the legacy of former US president Joe Biden.
His presidency was a success in domestic terms, with the United States recovering faster than any other wealthy nation from the pandemic and bequeathing an expanding economy with an impressive job-creation record. He doubled the number of Americans with access to affordable healthcare.
Yet his party let him selfishly cling to power when it was obvious to voters he was no longer fit to serve. Then it was defeated by a repulsive hard-right populist, who overcame sordid links to an attack on democracy by weaponising migration and skilfully riding waves of public concern over the cost of living.
Now Labour faces a similar challenge: to defeat a self-serving charlatan, the man responsible for an act of great national self-harm as the architect of Brexit. Even the most dunderheaded backbencher should see the significance of this fight ahead of them after Nigel Farage’s latest political party triumphed in the English local elections.
We can bicker over the biggest losers last week. But there is no doubt about the winner, even as the political map of Britain changed into a confusing mosaic of competing colours in a country stuck with an anachronistic electoral system. And history will judge this government – like Biden’s administration – through the prism of its successor if it hands power to the poisonous forces of hard-right populism.
So Labour MPs pondering Sir Keir Starmer’s future should not be deluded. They will not be hailed for delivering small technocratic improvements to the creaking public sector – a few more teachers in schools or marginal cuts in hospital waiting lists – if Farage follows them into power with his divisive agenda, billionaire crypto paymasters who have given the party millions and gruesome fellow travellers.
As I saw eight months ago at Reform’s party conference, this is a malevolent Trumpite grouping that despises our diverse nation, includes some who preach hate and provides a platform for bigots and conspiracy theorists. The central focus for Labour must be to stop their charge into Downing Street.
Clearly, Starmer has been a disappointment, failing to communicate a domestic vision and shrinking in office despite some successes on the global stage. It is hard to find an argument in defence of his lacklustre government as it slides around the political spectrum like a drunken ice-skater, even bidding to outflank Farage’s hostility to migrants. The Prime Minister’s poll ratings are dire, highlighted by the loathing party campaigners found on doorsteps.
Yet it is hard to believe any of the most likely successors will magically revive Labour’s fortunes. Look at the gains made by both Reform and the Green Party of England and Wales in Andy Burnham’s terrain of Greater Manchester. And who really thinks public faith will be restored by Angela Rayner, a housing minister forced to quit for failing to pay her stamp duty on a flat?
Perhaps there is an unexpected saviour lurking in Labour ranks. Yet most voters will view this latest jostling for power with jaded contempt after enduring six prime ministers in a decade – especially when Britain faces immense challenges at home and abroad. It excites Westminster, but as Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London, points out, changing leaders has failed to result in electoral victory twice as often as it has succeeded in the seven decades since former prime minister Harold Macmillan succeeded Anthony Eden. For every Sir John Major, there is a Gordon Brown or Liz Truss.
Labour’s problems go far deeper than simply a Pooterish Prime Minister, their inability to adapt to a rapidly-changing political and technological landscape, or their dreadful timidity and tragic failure to show they stand for anything. Instead of mouthing hollow mantras about “delivery” and “stability”, they need to demonstrate they are prepared to fight to save our country from the dark forces of fear-fuelled populism – whoever leads them into this battle.
Even amid the wreckage of last week’s defeat, there are slender grounds for hope. Labour’s losses were catastrophic, but they were expected to be even worse. Talk of chasing Farage’s tail – a strategy that has failed repeatedly for the Tories – should end since they lost more votes to the Greens. And Reform’s vote share fell from last year’s local elections, failing to win places such as the Isle of Wight, where Farage launched his campaign, or Wales, which he said was his “priority”.
Meanwhile, Farage’s personal approval ratings are sliding and his smirk slipping as questions grow over the secretive pocketing of £5m from a Thai-based donor to his party – even if Farage insists it was a private donation prior to his becoming an MP.
The Tory results were also terrible, for all the talk of a Kemi Badenoch bounce among their cheerleaders. They came fourth in Wales, fifth in Scotland, lost all six of their county councils and were crushed in their leader’s base of Essex.
The Liberal Democrats picked up a few more seats in the former blue wall – but this party is floundering too, after losing its traditional position as the repository for protest voters and looking directionless at a time when the fight for liberalism and democracy is so vital. The Greens had a night to remember, for sure, but their appeal looks limited when their leader is so flaky and the stench of antisemitism tarnishes them.
Labour should remember that – thanks to distortions of our voting system – it sits on a huge parliamentary majority. It should mimic the Greens’ boldness and optimism, if not their daft defence and fiscal policies, with drastic efforts to foster growth and tackle public sector deficiencies.
This does not just mean blowing more money: spending on children’s care in England, for instance, leapt by two-thirds in a decade, while numbers looked after by the state grew by only 16 per cent since private equity sharks were permitted to pillage the system.
Change the electoral system; our most stable recent government, after all, was a coalition. Crack down on illegal migration. Push radical criminal justice, drug, planning and tax reforms. Ditch the triple lock on state pensions.
And above all, set out a course to rejoin the European Union in this fight to save our country.
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