Labour leadership hopefuls who could replace Starmer – and beat Farage ...Middle East

Sir Keir Starmer is facing increased pressure to resign after Labour lost control of over 30 councils and lost hsitoric heartlands in places which at one time seemed unthinkable.

Labour has lost control of 38 councils and shed more than 1,400 councillors in this week’s local elections.

Reform won more than 1,200 council seats across England, gaining control of ten councils – many of them in traditional Labour heartlands – while Plaid Cymru ended 100 years of Labour control in Wales.

But Starmer, speaking on Friday morning, insisted he would not walk away and is due to set out his plan to reset his leadership in the week.

“These are tough results but tough days like this, they don’t weaken my resolve to deliver the change that I promised at the general election, they strengthen my resolve to do so,” he said.

Both allies and critics acknowledge he is unlikely to go voluntarily – but a leadership contest can also be triggered by a challenge from within the parliamentary party.

Former ally, Josh Simons has called for Starmer to resign, while ex-junior Foreign Office minister Catherine West, issued an ultimatum threating to run if the Cabinet did not oust Starmer.

The threshold for getting onto the ballot paper is 20 per cent of Labour MPs, currently around 81 members.

The question of who might replace Starmer is now inseparable from a harder one: which of his would-be successors could actually take on Nigel Farage?

Andy Burnham

The Greater Manchester mayor is widely considered the frontrunner. YouGov data from April 2026 shows he is the only major Labour politician with a positive net favourability rating, currently +9 compared to Starmer’s -45.

He is also the only Labour figure with positive net ratings among both Liberal Democrat and Green voters – crucial if the party wants to build a broad coalition against Reform.

The biggest catch is he cannot run for the leadership unless he wins a seat in Parliament. Strong gains by both Reform and the Greens in Greater Manchester this week show that may not be straightforward.

The seat most closely watched as an option for his return is Manchester Rusholme, held by Afzal Khan, one of Burnham’s closest allies.

Khan has an 8,000-strong majority, but the Greens saw a 19 per cent surge in vote share there in 2024.

The seat is also next door to Gorton and Denton, where Burnham was blocked from standing in a by-election earlier this year – a contest subsequently won by the Greens, with Reform pushing Labour into third.

Other MPs said to be under pressure to stand aside include Peter Dowd in Bootle, Charlotte Nichols in Warrington North, and Marie Rimmer in St Helens South – all deny being approached.

Reform came second to both Nichols and Rimmer at the last election, and St Helens Borough Council fell to Reform this week, with the Labour group leader losing his seat.

If Burnham leaves for Westminster, Labour also risks losing the mayoralty, which runs until 2028, to Reform or the Greens in the resulting by-election.

Angela Rayner

The MP for Ashton-under-Lyne and former deputy prime minister is another frontrunner – and the only Labour figure besides Burnham with positive net favourability among the party’s own 2024 voters, at 48 per cent favourable against 33 per cent unfavourable.

Her policy record in government includes the Employment Rights Act and the Renters’ Rights Act, which could help her appeal to left-wing voters.

But Reform does not see her as a threat. Asked by The Daily Telegraph in April which Labour leader would cause Reform the greatest problems, Farage said her politics were “way, way out left” and predicted her economic policies would drive away aspirational voters.

“The economic damage of a Rayner premiership would probably, in the long term, help us enormously,” he said.

With the general public her net rating stands at -31. The HMRC investigation into her stamp duty affairs has yet to conclude, and it is understood she is unlikely to move until it does.

Support within the parliamentary party is also uncertain. The i Paper revealed this week that Rayner travelled to Sheffield to meet Louise Haigh – who leads the soft-left Tribune group of around 100 MPs – to canvas support for a leadership bid, but Haigh declined to back her.

One MP told The i Paper that soft-left support appeared to be moving towards Burnham instead.

Wes Streeting

There have been reports that the Health Secretary’s allies have been laying the groundwork for a leadership bid for some time.

The Times reported this week that half a dozen MPs and senior Labour figures have been acting as “handlers” to sign up supporters and develop policy, with a former Downing Street aide among those involved.

Streeting has publicly denied any intention to challenge Starmer.

“Don’t feed it. It undermines all of us fighting elections locally,” he urged colleagues in a WhatsApp message.

Allies have argued that his more centrist economic offer – focused on public service reform and fiscal discipline – could prove better suited to winning back voters who have drifted to Reform than a shift leftwards.

His biggest barrier, however, is that his own seat is far from safe.

Streeting held Ilford North at the last election with a majority of just 528 over an independent pro-Palestine candidate.

His public approval rating stands at -20, and many in the parliamentary party regard him as too centre-right to build a broad enough coalition to take on Reform.

Some of his own supporters believe his window is closing. “If it’s Andy versus Wes, Andy would win. So if Wes is going to go, he’s got to go quickly,” one MP ally told The i Paper.

A spokesperson said: “Wes is not going to challenge the prime minister and has said that repeatedly.”

Some supporters of Burnham believe the early call from to start a leadership election may hand the role to Streeting as the current Greater Manchester mayor is yet to set out which seat in Parliament he could run to take.

Ed Miliband

The Energy Secretary tops cabinet rankings among Labour members, with a net favourability of +65 according to Survation polling for LabourList in April.

But he has ruled himself out of the race. Allies told The Times that his aim is to be kingmaker to a Burnham leadership bid – and to be rewarded with the chancellorship in return.

“He absolutely doesn’t want the leadership for himself but does see a role as being a kingmaker for Andy,” one MP told The Times.

If he did run, his green energy agenda gives Labour a distinctive offer that Reform cannot match, and his record on the environment and previous popularity among younger voters could help him make the case against Farage.

The Guardian has reported that MPs from Labour’s left are already urging him to reconsider, fearing a Streeting coronation if no soft-left candidate steps forward.

But he could face immediate pressure to call a general election given his 2015 defeat, and his Doncaster constituency is exposed – Reform took 37 of the council’s 55 seats there in 2025.

“The momentum has definitely swung away from Angela,” one ally told The Times. “Ed has taken soundings and thinks Andy would stand a much stronger chance if the party holds on long enough to trigger a contest.”

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