What a bounce-back year so far for Chicago Cubs reserve outfielder Michael Conforto, eh?
After a rough season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Conforto was not going to find a starting job out there and ultimately had to sign late on a minor league deal with a modest big league salary if he made the MLB roster.
Despite that, and after his latest big game, Conforto now sports a .361/.467/.667/211 wRC+ slash line, which makes him the second best hitter in baseball this year by wRC+ (min. 40 PA), behind only Ben Rice. Just as everyone predicted after his slow start at the plate.
The sample is small, and that’s a legitimately limiting factor when trying to make any proclamations, but I do find it interesting that Conforto’s results haven’t merely been the product of luck. Sure, his .443 xwOBA is lower than his .480 wOBA, but it’s still a MONSTER number – 5th highest in baseball among that 40+ PA group, just behind Mike Trout and Aaron Judge. In other words, there’s not much of a sample to dissect, but in his limited time so far, Conforto has actually hit like a beast.
That included yesterday’s big day, of course, which Craig Counsell took as an opportunity to praise Michael Conforto’s work more generally:
"He had a big day. The at-bats that he's provided in limited playing time, it's just really impressive."Craig Counsell on Michael Conforto's production ? pic.twitter.com/0Sj5n9bzxO
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) May 7, 2026That’s an important reminder there about the two-way street of the small sample: yes, numbers can more easily look extreme in a small sample (and thus be less valuable in evaluation or prediction), BUT ALSO Michael Conforto has that small sample because of the nature of his role. And that role, with it’s frequent pinch-hitting chances against late-inning relievers and inconsistent starts, is necessarily a little more difficult in which to keep up good production at the plate. But he’s doing it with aplomb.
So the small sample thing can cut both ways – it makes the achievements, in his particular case, both a little less and a little more impressive. For today, I think it’s nice to focus on the latter, because Conforto, who had to sign a minor league deal and thankfully chose the Cubs, has been critically important.
With all that in mind, how about this Michael Conforto stat: his 1.55 net Win Probability Added is 7th highest in baseball among position players, and that’s a stat that DOESN’T benefit from a small sample.
(via FanGraphs)In other words, Conforto is not only putting up huge numbers when he gets the chance, his huge numbers are disproportionately contributing to Cubs wins (even when compared to players with many, many, many more opportunities). Sure, Conforto potentially benefits from a role where many of his plate appearances definitionally come when the leverage is higher, but again, that just means he’s facing as much pressure (and often as difficult a reliever) as anyone. And in those moments, when it matters most, he keeps on coming through.
To put that another way, only six position players in baseball have ACTUALLY contributed more net impact to ACTUAL wins and losses than Michael Conforto, none of whom are on the Cubs, by the way. I know that sounds nuts, but it’s just the nature of Win Probability swinging wildly in those higher-leverage moments.
No, I’m not actually going to argue that Conforto has been more valuable to the Cubs than any other player this year. By the end of the year, those WPA numbers will move all over in such a way as to PROBABLY neutralize Conforto’s impact as his results see some natural regression. But I absolutely am willing to say Michael Conforto has likely been even more valuable than we were realizing, and has been very important to the Cubs’ overall success this year.
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