British holidaymakers have been warned to expect hundreds of last-minute flight cancellations this summer due to the ongoing jet fuel crisis.
At least 13,000 flights – representing two million fewer seats – have been cancelled worldwide by airlines already this month.
But only 120 flights from the UK to global destinations have been cancelled for the month of May and 36 in June so far, according to data shared with The i Paper by aviation analysts Cirium, with experts saying cuts are expected to grow.
Cirium said more flights are set to be culled in June and July as the conflict in Iran drags on, fuelling higher prices for jet fuel.
Flights to popular holiday destinations such as Spain and Italy, where airlines run several services a day, are thought to be particularly at risk as passengers can be moved onto alternative flights.
The figures come amid warnings that airlines in the UK may be forced into rationing fuel due to shortages caused by the stand-off between the US and Iran.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off about 30 per cent of Europe’s aviation fuel shipments and a rush to source scarce alternative supplies from locations including America and West Africa has led to a doubling in prices.
Frankfurt and Munich are the main routes where flights have been cancelled in the last week due to airline Lufthansa’s cull of seats.
Paul Charles, chief executive of travel consultancy The PC Agency, said airlines “will have to cancel more flights for the summer” if conflict in the strait continues.
“Airlines have been given permission by the UK Government to make changes if they need to without losing valuable slots, so you will see more cancellations if jet fuel is squeezed,” he said, referring to changes that have allowed airlines to return or consolidate take-off and landing slots without losing them for future seasons.
He added: “Cancellations are more likely on those routes with multiple frequencies as well as traditionally unprofitable routes. Airlines always use a crisis to cut routes that don’t work for them.”
Aviation analyst Sally Gethin warned that more customers could be hit with last-minute flight cancellations in the coming months.
She said: “I don’t think anybody can assume once they book their flight that it definitely is safe. The trouble is, they’re left having to sit on their hands with this because they’re not in the driving seat.”
Gethin said customers who have had flights cancelled at short notice are entitled to refunds or alternative routes, but claims for compensation could be denied if airlines successfully argue that it was an “extraordinary circumstance”.
She added: “It’s going to be corrosive. There’s no end in sight to oil supplies restarting in the Middle East and, however you slice and dice it, the UK and Europe are heavily reliant on that region for jet fuel.”
Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, said: “If the current conflict continues, the pressure for jet fuel will mean that airlines that struggle to source alternate supplies will result in additional flights being nixed.”
He said seasonal and low-demand regional flights could be cut sooner, as well as long-haul flights that require more jet fuel to operate.
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