Aston Villa can still have a big impact on the fortunes of several Premier League teams this season, potentially providing a route to the Champions League for an unexpected beneficiary.
It’s May, which means roughly 95% of every football fan’s brain is frantically working out various league table permutations on an almost constant basis. Don’t worry if you temporarily forget how to tie your shoelaces or what your neighbour’s name is, your mind has just made room to figure out how many points your team still needs this season.
The race for Europe in the Premier League is rarely straightforward, with coefficients and cup victories potentially adding more confusion. This season, though, there is another possibility to consider.
Due to the excellent collective performance of English teams in Europe in 2025-26, the Premier League has again secured an extra UEFA Champions League spot, with the team who finish fifth heading to the big show next season.
However, there is a scenario in which England have a sixth representative in the Champions League, as there was this season. That was due to Tottenham winning the Europa League in 2024-25, qualifying them for the UCL despite finishing 17th in the league.
Of course, it could happen via a similar scenario. If Nottingham Forest win the Europa League, they will qualify for the Champions League as a sixth representative from England, and the same is true should Aston Villa go all the way in Europe but finish outside the top five, although that is unlikely despite their wobbly form.
However, in the case of Villa, there is a scenario where they also open sixth spot in the Premier League to other clubs.
Should Unai Emery’s side finish fifth (but no higher) and win the Europa League, then whomever finishes sixth in the Premier League will also qualify for the Champions League.
That means Bournemouth, Brentford and Brighton & Hove Albion would each have a reasonable chance of qualifying for Europe’s premier competition for the first time ever.
While it might seem odd that Villa must specifically finish fifth, this is due to the way UEFA dishes out qualifying spots. UEFA prioritises those who qualify via guaranteed league slots and winners of European trophies, and then comes the European Placement Spot (EPS). This is the route the team who finish fifth in the Premier League will take to the Champions League.
Essentially, if Villa win the Europa League and finish in the EPS (fifth), that place drops down one. But if they finish in a league position (1-4) that would guarantee Champions League qualification anyway, UEFA will assign the extra place to the team with the highest coefficient who are reigning European domestic champions but not already qualified for next season’s league phase.
After their shock 2-1 home loss to Tottenham on Sunday, Villa remain in fifth place, and they finished there in 60.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s latest 10,000 season simulations.
They did, though, lose 1-0 to Forest in the first leg of their Europa League semi-final last week, with the second leg to come at Villa Park on Thursday. Therefore the supercomputer only saw them go on to lift the trophy in 22% of simulations.
Armed with that information, we can therefore work out the percentage chance of sixth place in the Premier League becoming a Champions League spot.
As things stand, there is a 13.3% likelihood of Villa finishing fifth and winning the Europa League, according to the Opta supercomputer.
You would therefore forgive fans of Bournemouth, Brentford and Brighton in particular cheering for Villa on Thursday, and also hoping that Liverpool in fourth can pull away from them in the league.
After the weekend, Bournemouth – on a remarkable 15-game unbeaten run in the league – are slight favourites to finish sixth, which is where they currently reside. The Cherries did so in 33.5% of sims, just ahead of Brighton (32.1%).
Brentford are a little less fancied despite having a point more than Brighton, likely because they have a tougher final three fixtures than the Seagulls on paper. The Bees finished sixth in 17% of sims.
Of course, all three of those teams also have a small chance of sneaking into the top five, but it is significantly likelier they will have to rely on Villa to do the business in Europe while remaining static in the league.
Doing more maths, we can also confirm the percentage chances of each of those teams finishing sixth and Villa doing what it takes to make it a UCL spot.
Bournemouth have a 4.4% likelihood of qualifying for the Champions League via sixth place, just ahead of Brighton (4.3%) and Brentford (2.3%).
There are other teams who can still finish sixth, but their chances are somewhat waning.
Very out-of-form Chelsea have just a 3.9% chance of finishing sixth, which gives them only a 0.5% likelihood of Champions League qualification.
Fulham will likely need to beat Bournemouth on Saturday to keep their slim hopes of 0.6% alive (4.4% chance of finishing sixth), while despite a spirited draw with Manchester City on Monday, Everton only finished sixth in 3% of sims, leaving them with a 0.4% chance of UCL football next season.
Sunderland (0.4%) and Newcastle United (0.05%) still have very small chances of finishing sixth, but the likelihood of that and it being a UCL spot are so small it’s really not worth mentioning.
There will, of course, be other European places up for grabs, so each of those clubs still have plenty of play for.
But as far as sixth place getting someone into the Champions League goes, the ball’s in Aston Villa’s court.
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Will Sixth Place in the Premier League Secure a Champions League Spot in 2025-26? Opta Analyst.
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