We look ahead to Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League semi-final second leg at the Allianz Arena with our Bayern Munich vs PSG prediction and preview. Is another thriller on the cards?
Bayern Munich vs PSG: The Key Stats
Bayern Munich are expected to use their home advantage to get a win, triumphing in 52.7% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations. Across major European competitions, the most goals in any semi-final was Eintracht Frankfurt vs Rangers in 1959-60 (16), which finished 12-4 on aggregate. PSG have lost more away games against Bayern (5) than against any other opponent in the European Cup/Champions League.Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain put on a stunning show with an all-out attacking display in their UEFA Champions League semi-final first leg last week, and the second leg promises to be just as much of a show stealer.
PSG hold a 5-4 advantage at the halfway stage, with Ousmane Dembélé scoring the winner. It was the highest-scoring European Cup semi-final since Eintracht Frankfurt beat Rangers 6-3 in 1959-60.
Across both legs, in major European competitions, the most goals in any semi-final was in that Eintracht vs Rangers tie (16), which ended 12-4 on aggregate to the German side.
Whether the second leg will be as wide open as the first is yet to be determined, though both managers have suggested their approach will not change.
Bayern need to win by at least two goals to reach the final, while PSG know they can’t rest on their laurels.
Bayern have overturned a first-leg deficit four times in 16 previous ties in the Champions League (since 1992-93). However, they’ve not done so in any of their previous such semi-final ties, going out on all five occasions.
Only one team has ever scored five goals in a Champions League knockout match and been eliminated in that tie: Manchester City against Monaco in the 2016-17 last 16, though that was due to the now defunct away goals rule (5-3 win first leg, 1-3 loss second leg).
No matter what, it is highly unlikely that this will be a cagey, defensive display, with the two leading scorers in this season’s competition taking part.
PSG have hit 43 goals to Bayern’s 42; the record for goals scored in a European Cup campaign (all-time since 1955) is 45 by Barcelona in 1999-00.
Though Luis Enrique’s side had kept three straight clean sheets prior to the first leg against Bayern, they have proven they will give up chances. PSG have allowed 50+ touches in their own box in each of their last two Champions League games (50 for Liverpool, 52 for Bayern) – in their first 13 games this term, the average touches by opponents in PSG’s box was just 17.
And Bayern will certainly be putting on the pressure in the final third. They’ve scored 20 goals in their five knockout games in the 2025-26 Champions League.
PSG, meanwhile, have scored 22 times in their seven such games, with only the Parisiens themselves last season scoring more in the knockout stages in a single season (24) of the Champions League (since 1992-93).
Both sides have goalscorers and playmakers that can light up any stage, with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia emerging as a key figure in PSG’s Champions League charge.
He has been involved in 15 goals in the competition this term (10 goals, 5 assists), a record by a PSG player in a single campaign.
Kvaratskhelia has scored seven knockout-stage goals, with only three players scoring more in a season for any club in the Champions League – Cristiano Ronaldo in 2013-14 (8 for Real Madrid), Lionel Messi in 2011-12 (8 for Barcelona), and Karim Benzema in 2020-21 (10 for Real Madrid).
Désiré Doué is also shining again, with 13 of his 17 Champions League goal involvements for PSG coming in the knockout stages (7 goals, 6 assists).
No other player has 10+ goals and assists outside the group stages before turning 21, and of players with 500+ minutes in the knockout stages, only Raphinha (every 59 mins) and Ivica Olic (63 mins) average a goal or assist more regularly than Doué (72 mins) in the Champions League.
As for Bayern, there is no one more potent than Harry Kane in front of goal. The England striker has scored 13 Champions League goals for Bayern this season, just two shy of the record for goals in a major European season for the club, set by Jürgen Klinsmann in the 1995-96 UEFA Cup (15) and Robert Lewandowski in the 2019-20 Champions League (15).
He’s also scored in his last six appearances in the competition – it’s the longest-ever run by an Englishman in the European Cup (since 1955).
Bayern are looking to reach their 12th European Cup/Champions League final. Only Real Madrid (18) have qualified for more. But there is a slice of history on the line for PSG if they can go through; they would become the first French side to make at three appearances in the final.
Bayern Munich vs PSG Head-to-Head
PSG ended a five-match losing streak against Bayern with their 5-4 win in the first leg, but Bayern do, generally, have a good record against PSG, winning nine of their previous 16 matches against them (L7).
PSG have lost more away games against Bayern (5) than against any other opponent in the European Cup/Champions League.
Of teams they have faced more than once away from home across the two competitions, only Manchester City (100% – 3/3) and Real Madrid (75% – 3/4) do thy have a higher loss percentage than at Bayern (71% – 5/7).
Bayern Munich vs PSG Prediction
No matter what, Bayern know that they must win by a two-goal cushion to go through to the final without needing extra-time. The Opta supercomputer is expecting them to triumph in 90 minutes, which would at least guarantee extra-time.
Bayern won 52.7% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, while PSG came out on top again in 27.2% of those. A draw, which would be enough to send PSG through, has a 20.1% chance of occurring.
PSG are favourites to advance overall, doing so in 57.8% of sims, while Bayern went through in the other 42.2%.
Bayern Munich vs PSG Predicted Lineups
Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer, Josip Stanišić, Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Tah, Konrad Laimer, Joshua Kimmich, Aleksandar Pavlović, Michael Olise, Jamal Musiala, Luis Díaz, Harry Kane.
Head Coach: Vincent Kompany
Paris Saint-Germain: Matvey Safonov, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Marquinhos, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes, João Neves, Fabián Ruiz, Vitinha, Désiré Doué, Ousmane Dembélé, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
Head Coach: Luis Enrique
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this week, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Bayern Munich vs PSG Prediction: Can Kompany’s Men Overturn One-Goal Deficit After First-Leg Thriller? Opta Analyst.
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