Arizona Cardinals rookie running back Jeremiyah Love opened as the consensus betting favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year after he was drafted third overall.
His odds are as high as +250 (DraftKings), with others listing the former Notre Dame star at +300 (BetMGM) and +320 (FanDuel). For reference, a +300 listing implies a 25% chance to win the award.
Love was the highest drafted running back since Saquon Barkley was picked second by the New York Giants in 2018. Barkley is also the last running back to win the award, with quarterbacks and wide receivers combining for the last seven.
Barkley set a bar of 2,028 scrimmage yards as a rookie, which led the league. He benefitted from a barren running back room, where he rushed for 1,307 yards (five yards per carry) and no other Giant rushed for more than 176 yards.
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Love isn’t likely to get the same percentage of carries, flanked by James Conner, Tyler Allgeier and Trey Benson.
He could make that production up in the receiving game, however, as he caught 45 balls over his last two seasons at Notre Dame. That would be more in line with how New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara won the award one season before Barkley.
Kamara had more receiving yards (826) than rushing (728) as a rookie, but his 6.1 yards per carry led the NFL, so it took excelling in both dimensions.
ESPN’s Ben Solak ranked Love second on his candidates list for the award, noting that he has the “receiving chops to be a dynamic three-down player” and that those added snaps could prove to be the difference.
A bet on Love for Rookie of the Year is a bet that he’s closer to Barkley (transcendently talented, able to produce on even a bad team) than he is to Ashton Jeanty (extremely talented but still limited by poor quarterback/offensive line play).
Love joins an offense captained by the unholy product of a Jacoby Brissett/Gardner Minshew II/Carson Beck camp battle and will run behind an offensive line that was 29th in adjusted line yards last season (the FTN Fantasy stat for how much an offensive line affected a team’s running game. Improvements have been made (signing guard Isaac Seumalo and hiring coach Mike LaFleur), but I’m unwilling to buy into any Cardinals offensive success this year.
The Cardinals have three Offensive Rookie of the Year winners in their history, including Kyler Murray (2019) and Anquan Boldin (2003) since moving to Arizona. Running back Ottis Anderson won it in 1979 while playing for the St. Louis Cardinals.
Carson Beck’s outside shot at Offensive Rookie of the Year
Solak included Love in his frontrunners tier. The Cardinals’ third-round pick, quarterback Carson Beck, wasn’t included in the long shots tier but was instead in the longer shots tier.
The path to playing time stands out in Beck’s case, with career backups Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew standing in his way. Cardinals brass have shied away from anointing Beck, but they also haven’t shut the door on him starting early.
Solak writes:
If he (starts Week 1), he has a solid group of pass catchers and a head coach stemming off the Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan tree in Mike LaFleur. Production — even if it’s composed entirely of empty calories accumulated in trailing scripts — will not surprise me for a 23-year-old with good point guard characteristics.
Beck was not listed on FanDuel or BetMGM’s odds, but he ranked seventh on DraftKings’ list (+1500).
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