The Phoenix Suns’ last three playoff runs have ended on their home floor, and if there’s anything for them to fight for in Monday’s potential elimination game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, it’s that.
The 2024 sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Timberwolves wasn’t as much an embarrassing game as it was an embarrassing series result, while the surreal nature of the endings to the previous two years that certainly reached those heights do not require further explanation.
Thanks to the dynamics of this series, taking on the title favorite while the team has been shorthanded and reeling since February, it’s not going to reach those levels regardless.
But we’ll see if lingering ghosts haunt the building once more, and what a limited Devin Booker can manage.
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He hasn’t been right the last few weeks, selectively showing full burst on his drives, and this was even before tweaking something around his left foot in Saturday’s Game 3 loss.
This recasts a murky fog to navigate through once more. His playoff fate has been here before, even though none of these following injuries were ever listed on an injury report, even for Game 4 on Monday.
In the 2021 NBA Finals, it was later revealed that Booker strained his hamstring in Game 3 and valiantly played through it for back-to-back 40-burgers before the wear-down caught up to him in Game 6.
There was nothing that popped up in 2022 when he averaged only 23.4 points per game on 43.2% shooting, while a year later, Booker went sideline-to-sideline on a steal attempt in Game 5 against Denver and clearly pulled something.
He covered it up expertly as he almost always does, barely revealing a physical reaction beyond a few seconds, not even catching the eye of the television broadcast or practically anyone else. He confirmed after the game there was some type of injury at play but downplayed it like he did on Saturday. In Game 6 of that 2023 series, he wasn’t moving well at all and barely impacted the game.
Booker was bad in the first three games against Minnesota for 2024 before ripping off 49 points in Game 4. Nothing appeared to be ailing him physically.
However you classify those postseasons, this is now all five in which Booker either hasn’t been able to hold up physically through the totality of the Suns’ run and/or he underperformed to close, all before he turns 30 years old the day before Halloween.
The consistency of his health and play in the postseason has suddenly become relevant.
Thunder’s statistically-induced nightmare hangs over series
This series has been a disaster in a few key statistical categories we highlighted on going in, and speaks to this new form of monster that Oklahoma City is.
We use the term “make-or-miss league” often in this supposed 3-point revolution, but if you’ve ever failed to understand the importance of “the possession game” and why Suns head coach Jordan Ott has championed this revolution, here’s why.
Oklahoma City has an unbelievable 2.88 assist-to-turnover ratio through three games. The next-best mark in the playoffs is Minnesota at a 2.17, and the regular season leaders were Denver at 2.25.
Phoenix is tied for last at a 1.23. Turnovers are 52-26 Suns.
This has more than covered up the Thunder’s weakness. That’s right, folks, they do have one.
Oklahoma City’s susceptible 3-point shooting has been as advertised, a supposed crack in the armor. It is shooting 32.5% from deep.
But all this has done is create another anomaly.
In the last three postseasons, there have only been two teams to win at least three playoff games in a row while shooting 33% or worse on 3s across that streak. Both were the Thunder in the first round last year and this year, per Stathead.
OKC swept Memphis in 2025 shooting 31.3% at 3-point range, and if it completes the sweep on Monday while avoiding another sharpshooting display, the Thunder will become the third team in NBA history to complete a four-game sweep shooting 34% or worse from 3-point range. Those two Thunder teams would join the 2004 New Jersey Nets, who attempted 63 total 3s in those four victories.
In this current form of basketball, we’ve almost never seen a NBA team maintain dominance despite poor 3-point shooting. Oklahoma City is the exception.
The Suns have not taken advantage of it. They are at 33.3% themselves, and that is being lifted up by their highest-volume guy in Dillon Brooks shooting 12-of-28 (42.9%).
Perhaps with better shooting luck their fate could have changed, like the Los Angeles Lakers shooting 46.1% on 3s through their first three wins after finishing 14th in 3-point percentage across the regular season. It’s about time that franchise got a helping nudge from the basketball gods. Good for them.
While high-level playoff games are normally defined by a few key plays, variance through the possession battle and 3-point shooting normally decide most NBA games these days. The Suns haven’t done nearly a good enough job of controlling that variance in order to muster up one of those high-level fixtures.
To that point!
The fear that the Suns’ inability to avoid ineptitude across a handful of consecutive minutes would accelerate Oklahoma City’s brand of chaos has held true in each of the three games.
OKC’s game-changing flurries include 31-10 in Game 1, 20-7 in Game 2 and 18-4 in Game 3. The Suns must avoid those on Monday, particularly early, to show a crowd not quick to believe in them that they have a chance to at least do something on Monday. If anything, Phoenix needs its own version of that type of run to develop when the game is not already lost, so it can take control for the first time all series.
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