Donald Trump has embarked on a lonely war – a war threatening to drag the US into prolonged conflict and damage his domestic standing.
The US has received little support from allies including the UK for the bombardment of Iran – a bombardment the US failed to inform allies of – and a leaked memo from the Pentagon suggests the administration is looking for ways to punish them.
As well as a potential attempt to suspend Spain from the Nato military alliance after disagreements over defence spending, the memo reportedly suggests the US could review its support for the UK’s sovereignty over the Falkland Islands.
The revelation will no doubt touch a nerve in the UK. The 1982 Falklands war – in which the UK sought to retake the territory from Argentinian forces – killed 255 members of the British armed forces, 649 Argentinians and three Falkland Islanders. At the time, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan had a close relationship, but Argentina is now led by Trump’s ally President Javier Milei.
It comes after the US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, mocked Europe’s conferences on clearing the Strait of Hormuz – a crucial shipping lane which Iran has effectively shut in retaliation for US and Israeli attacks – this week, telling them instead to “get in a boat” and help reopen the waterway.
The memo is just the latest threat and bullying tactic to come from the US in order to push allies into entering the conflict.
Pete Hegseth told European allies to ‘get in a boat’ to help to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)The administration is facing growing international and domestic pressure to resolve the conflict and end the global instability it has caused.
Growing discontent at home
Iran’s bombing of oil and gas sites across the Middle East and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 per cent of the world’s oil and gas is typically shipped, sent fuel prices skyrocketing – and it is hurting Americans at home.
An Ipsos poll this weekend found 66 per cent of Americans believe the US should work to end its involvement in the conflict quickly, while nearly nine-in-ten (87 per cent) expect gas prices to continue to rise and a majority report that rising gas prices have impacted their households’ finances.
It makes for unpleasant reading for a President already facing tumbling popularity – especially ahead of the Midterm elections in just seven months time.
Pursuit of the conflict has long seemed at odds with his political platform and threatens to further alienate an increasingly hesitant voter base. Trump was elected on a pledge to end US involvement in “forever wars” and spend more money at home. Yet since his re-election in January last year, he has launched military action in Venezuela and the Middle East, and is now asking Congress to increase the defence budget to $1tn while making domestic spending cuts.
No more forever wars?
As his involvement overseas deepens, Trump risks getting embroiled in the type of forever war he railed against. He has repeatedly extended his deadline for Tehran to end its attacks, with Iran claiming the US is seeking “a face-saving way to escape the war quagmire it has become trapped in”.
The two sides are set to engage in some form of negotiations in Pakistan this weekend, but there is already confusion over how the talks will be carried out: the White House said Iran wants to talk “in person” – but Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it would be meeting only “Pakistani high-level officials”.
These stalling talks and growing domestic political pressure will surely only be adding to the US President’s fury at allies refusing to bail him out.
Notably, Sir Keir Starmer’s rhetoric has shifted and despite allowing the US the use of UK bases, he has refused to drag British troops into the conflict and blamed America’s attack for rising domestic energy prices.
Nato allies, such as Spain, have blocked the use of airspace. In France, Emmanuel Macron has rebuked Trump’s constant attacks on Truth Social while Italy’s Giorgia Meloni has shifted away from Trump following his spat with the Pope.
But as the US provokes and punishes its oldest friends, it is Trump’s own position that is suffering most, while not providing him a critical off-ramp to end the conflict.
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