How does the Opta supercomputer predict the semi-final first-leg matches in the UEFA Women’s Champions League this weekend will play out?
The UEFA Women’s Champions League semi-finals get under way this weekend, with Barcelona heading to Bayern Munich and Arsenal hosting OL Lyonnes in the first-leg matches across Saturday and Sunday.
Could we end up seeing a repeat of last season’s final? Both Arsenal and Barcelona will be looking to put one foot in the 2025-26 showpiece with positive results this weekend. Not since 2009-10 and 2010-11 has there been consecutive finals between the same two teams in the competition (Lyon vs Turbine Potsdam).
We look ahead to the two first-leg matches, complete with our Opta supercomputer predictions.
Bayern Munich vs Barcelona
Saturday 25 April (18:15 CET kick-off)
The first of the two semi-final ties in 2025-26 kicks off on Saturday at the Allianz Arena, with Bayern Munich hosting Barcelona.
Bayern enter the game on a high, having secured their fourth successive Frauen-Bundesliga title on Wednesday with a 3-2 victory over Union Berlin. The win extended their club-record winning streak to 19 league games, moving them an unassailable 15 points clear at the top of the standings.
Bayern’s unbeaten streak is 27 games across all competitions (W26 D1), but their last defeat came in a 7-1 thrashing against Saturday’s opponents Barcelona in the UWCL league phase on 7 October 2025. That was their biggest ever defeat in the competition and one of four losses in their last five meetings with the Spanish club.
The only previous knockout-stage tie between Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the UWCL came in the 2018-19 semi-finals, with the Spanish side winning both legs 1-0.
The Opta supercomputer is backing the Catalans to secure yet another win this time out, too. They secured a first-leg victory away in Germany across 48.0% of pre-match simulations, while Bayern took a lead into the second leg of the tie just 27.8% of the time.
Barcelona manager Pere Romeu could become just the sixth manager to reach the final of the UEFA Women’s Champions League in both of their first two seasons and the first since Jonatan Giráldez in 2021-22/2022-23, also with Barça. Victory here would give him a great chance of doing just that.
Arsenal vs OL Lyonnes
Sunday 26 April (16:30 CET kick-off)
Arsenal host French giants OL Lyonnes at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday in the first of a series of Champions League semi-final matches for both their women’s and men’s sides.
The women’s team will hope to take a first-leg lead to France for the second leg on 2 May, but history suggests that may be hard to achieve. OL Lyonnes have won all five of their away games against Arsenal, already coming from behind to win 2-1 at Meadow Park in this season’s league phase – it is the most away wins one side boasts over another in the UWCL.
But the Gunners did eliminate the French side at this stage of the competition last year on the way to eventually securing the trophy, despite losing 2-1 at home in the first leg, so even if they do lose this match, the tie may not be over.
Melchie Dumornay will be a player that Arsenal have to keep a close eye on. She’s scored in each of her three appearances against them, and in each of her four semi-final outings in the UEFA Women’s Champions League (four goals). The Haitian has 11 goal involvements in 11 knockout games in the competition (seven goals, four assists) overall.
Alessia Russo will be on the hunt for more goals. She leads the UWCL top scorer rankings having scored eight in 10 appearances in the competition this season. She’s scored five goals in her last three competitive appearances at the Emirates Stadium and will been keen to rise to the occasion again in front of a packed crowd in north London this weekend.
The Opta supercomputer is backing Renée Slegers’ side to win this first leg, with home advantage just giving Arsenal the edge over Lyon. The WSL side prevailed in 39.7% of its pre-match simulations, with Lyonnes winning 33.7% of the time.
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UEFA Women’s Champions League 2025-26: The Opta Supercomputer’s Semi-Final First-Leg Predictions Opta Analyst.
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