The 2026 NFL Draft kicks off Thursday night at 8 p.m. ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, with ESPN and the NFL Network carrying the first round. The betting markets have been moving quickly all week, and with one pick essentially already priced as a certainty, most of the action has shifted to the rest of the top ten and the various prop markets surrounding specific players and positions. Here is a full breakdown of what to know before Thursday night.
The No. 1 Pick: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders
There is no bet here. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza opened at +10000 a year ago and has been a massive favorite for months, closing out the pre-draft window at -20000. That is a 99-plus percent implied probability and a number that reflects genuine market consensus rather than hype. Mendoza led Indiana to their first national championship in program history and checks every box teams look for at the position. The Las Vegas Raiders hold the pick and there is no credible alternative scenario in the market. If you want action on the first overall pick, you are paying enormous juice for essentially no information advantage.
The No. 2 Pick: Bailey vs. Reese
This is where the real drama starts and where the market has been most volatile. Texas Tech defensive end David Bailey and Ohio State edge/linebacker Arvell Reese have been trading the favorite position for the second overall pick all week. The New York Jets hold this pick and are widely believed to prefer Bailey’s more traditional pass-rushing profile over Reese’s hybrid versatility.
Bailey was -125 to go second as of Wednesday morning after spending Tuesday at nearly -200. Reese moved back ahead of him later in the day. The line has flipped multiple times and is likely to keep moving up to first pick. Bailey at any positive number is worth consideration if you believe the Jets prioritize immediate pass rush production, which most reporting suggests they do. At the right price, there is genuine value in the flip-flop here.
The No. 3 Pick: Love in Play for Arizona
Arizona holds the third pick and the market has been interesting all week. Jeremiyah Love, the Notre Dame running back who produced 3,476 scrimmage yards and 42 touchdowns in his college career, is in active consideration for this spot according to multiple reports. Running backs almost never go this high anymore, with only three taken in the top ten since 2018, which is precisely why the odds carry value if you believe Arizona is willing to break from the trend.
Bailey also has odds here at +170, making the third pick one of the more contested positions on the board. Love to the Cardinals at his current number represents genuine value if you think Arizona prioritizes the best athlete available over positional convention.
The No. 4 and 5 Picks: Love and Styles
Love is the favorite to go fourth overall if he slips past Arizona, with the Tennessee Titans at four rumored to have genuine interest. Sonny Styles, the Ohio State linebacker, is in the conversation for the fifth pick held by the New York Giants. Ohio State also has Carnell Tate and Caleb Downs expected in the top ten, which creates the possibility of the Buckeyes becoming only the second school in the common draft era to have four players selected in the top ten of the same draft.
The Giants situation is interesting because they also hold the tenth pick after acquiring it from the Bengals in the Dexter Lawrence trade. That gives them flexibility to take a specific prospect at five and use ten for the best available, or to trade out of one of those slots for more capital.
© Michael Caterina-Imagn ImagesNotable Props to Know
First running back selected: Love is a massive favorite at -1000 or shorter depending on the book. The only scenario where this does not cash is a dramatic slide, which the market is not pricing as meaningful.
First offensive lineman selected: This market has seen significant movement after reporting emerged about Francis Mauigoa’s back injury. Mauigoa had been viewed as the consensus top tackle, and the injury news opened the door for Spencer Fano and Olaivavega Ioane to be re-evaluated. Fano is now co-favored depending on the book, and anyone who got Mauigoa at a short price before the injury reporting is sitting in a tough spot.
Ty Simpson over/under 32.5: The Alabama quarterback is the consensus second quarterback in this class but carries real first-round uncertainty. Multiple sources have said teams believe Simpson will go in the first round, but his limited experience at 15 career starts and inconsistent late-season film give teams reason for pause. His over is sitting at around -115 on most books, meaning the market leans toward a slide into day two. This is one of the more interesting props on the board.
Over 11.5 Big Ten players selected in the first round: This line was sitting at +144 as of Wednesday and represents a legitimate betting angle. Ohio State alone could account for four players in the top ten, and Indiana, Oregon, Penn State, USC, and Washington are all expected to have first-round contributors. The Big Ten has at minimum ten players projected as first-rounders across most mock drafts, and the over has real path to cashing.
Teams with Multiple First-Round Picks
Several teams have two picks in the first round, which creates trade-up and trade-down scenarios throughout the night. The Jets hold picks two and sixteen. The Giants hold five and ten. The Browns have six and twenty-four. The Chiefs have nine and twenty-nine. The Dolphins hold eleven and thirty. The Cowboys have twelve and twenty.
Dallas has been one of the most discussed trade-up candidates all week, with reports suggesting the Cowboys want to be aggressive Thursday night to land a premium defensive prospect currently projected to go earlier in the board.
Feb 6, 2026; San Francisco, CA, USA; The 2026 NFL Draft logo at the Super Bowl LX Experience at the Moscone Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn ImagesHow to Bet the Draft
The most important thing to understand about draft betting is that the markets are thinner and more news-driven than regular season game betting. Lines can move dramatically in the minutes before picks are announced based on information leaks from team facilities. Setting your positions early in the day and not chasing late movement is generally the more disciplined approach.
The genuine value in draft betting tends to live in the mid-range props and position-specific markets rather than in the heavily bet top two or three picks, where the juice makes the risk-reward difficult to justify.
Responsible Gambling and Bankroll Management
Draft night is one of the more entertaining betting experiences on the calendar, but the pace of picks and the emotional nature of rooting for your team can make it easy to over-bet. Set a clear total budget before Thursday night begins and treat each prop as its own individual decision rather than letting early losses drive you into chasing volume later in the round.
If gambling ever feels difficult to manage, free and confidential support is available at ncpgambling.org. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible Gaming Resources
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