The UK and France are leading a new Coalition of the Willing to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid mounting tensions with the US over its handling of the crisis, but face daunting obstacles to realise their plans.
After convening a session of 51 countries on Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer issued a joint statement declaring “freedom of navigation must be free” and “the right of transit passage without restrictions or tolls is the bedrock of international trade”, in reference to Tehran’s demands for tolls of up to $2m (£1.48m) per ship for passage.
The same day, US President Donald Trump declared the strait to be open after an apparent diplomatic breakthrough. But a day later, Iran announced the waterway had “returned to its previous state” due to the US blockade of its shipping remaining in place.
The British-French plan is beginning to take shape. Starmer said “over a dozen countries” have offered to contribute assets to back a post-conflict operation and keep the strait open, adding that it “is a global necessity and a global responsibility”.
The process mirrors a similar – but more Europe-centric – scheme to secure Ukraine after the end of that war.
Now, as the blockade of the strait threatened a fifth of global energy supplies, Europeans are trying to rope in not just familiar partners such as Canada, but also “strategic rival” China and various Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and India.
The US was not on the list of attendees of the Friday session.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer at the new Coalition of the Willing summit in Paris (Photo: Tom Nicholson/AFP/Getty)France has opposed US involvement – partly in an attempt to make European decision-making more autonomous. But German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said “there are good arguments” to have the US onboard, possibly referring to the need to keep Trump onside, or to the US’s military might.
The US is itself oscillating between two extremes: threatening Europe to secure the strait or risking withdrawal from Nato and dismissing the need for European contributions entirely.
“The US navy has more than enough resources and assets to secure the strait itself and does not need help from any other country,” Olivia Wales, a White House spokesperson, said on Thursday.
Trump blasted his supposed allies again after declaring the crisis resolved. “Now that the Hormuz Strait situation is over, I received a call from Nato asking if we would need some help,” he posted. “They were useless when needed, a Paper Tiger!”
In the Friday meeting, the new coalition discussed how exactly each participant might help secure the strait if talks between the US and Iran paved a path toward sustainable peace.
The central idea appears to be that deploying military assets from a wide array of countries may deter Iran from reneging on a deal and resuming attacks. Iran might think twice before striking French, German or Korean ships patrolling the waterway as that might risk further expanding the theatre and turning everyone against it.
In addition, the presence of Asian countries – some of whom have better relations with Tehran – may allow backchannel talks to diplomatically resolve a crisis.
Starmer had earlier indicated the European objective is to have a clear “thought-through plan” with a legal basis, which was absent from Trump’s antithetical approach – block the strait fully only to compel Iran to reopen it.
In comparison, the European plan envisages deploying key naval assets to demine the strait, then escorting tankers with frigates or destroyers embedded with air defense capabilities – to repel incoming missiles and drones – and creating a grand coalition with a larger buy-in.
US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine speaks next to a map showing a blockade line on the Strait of Hormuz (Photo: Nathan Howard/Reuters)France has indicated it could deploy frigates to escort commercial vessels once the fighting has ended. “We are convinced that once the situation becomes calmer, we are ready, alongside other nations, to take responsibility for an escort system,” President Macron has said, even as experts pointed out it would be an expensive undertaking. France has already deployed an aircraft carrier, two helicopter carriers and eight warships to the eastern Mediterranean.
Germany has indicated it could deploy long-range patrol aircraft and minesweepers.
The Europeans are believed to have a larger minesweeping fleet than the US – reportedly more than 150 vessels. Jürgen Ehle, a retired German rear admiral and former senior military advisor to the EU, said the number appeared to be realistic as he claimed German competence in the field.
“Minesweeping is a German core capability since the Cold War, when we tried to clean up Soviet mines from the Baltic Sea,” he added. “Germany has 10 minesweepers, two minehunters and three air frigates with air defence capabilities. But it can deploy any of these after a mandate, ideally from the UN, and approval from the Bundestag, the German parliament.”
“I can expect Germany to deploy relevant navy personnel to co-ordinate efforts at the future headquarters of this mission – whether it is an EU-led or UN-mandated mission,” he said. “And we might be able to deploy underwater drones in future, also capable of MCM (mine countermeasures), provided they are ready.”
David B Roberts, a reader at King’s College London, was more circumspect about British capabilities. He told The i Paper it was unclear if Britain could deploy any of the minehunting vessels and described them as “old and decrepit” and “kind of decommissioned”.
Japanese minesweeping vessels at the Yokosuka naval base (Photo: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty)An Asian diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that his country is considering diverting an asset currently deployed as part of the EU’s counter-piracy mission Operation Atalanta off the coast of Somalia, to the Strait of Hormuz.
The diplomat did not rule out deploying minesweeping capabilities, but warned any contribution would be post-conflict. “Even if we decide to send assets, it might still take a long time.”
Syed Akbaruddin, a former senior Indian diplomat, said India’s participation in the coalition is likely to assure seafarers – about 10 per cent of global seafarers hail from India – to navigate a high-risk zone, and to make it economically viable for the shipping industry.
“If there are concerns that ships can’t go themselves, then the price of insurance will be too high. But if the shipping industry and insurers have confidence that 30 to 40 countries are assisting the passage, they might feel that there is less likelihood of an attack and so prices of insurance will also go down.”
Roberts suggested that the strait could only be “functionally reopened…when war risk underwriters are prepared to insure vessels transiting it at rates that make passage economically viable”.
But a coalition that excludes the use of military force could be vulnerable, a similar issue that plagued the same partners’ plans for Ukraine.
Diplomats are wrestling with the question of what members will do if Iran closes the strait again – perhaps under an Israeli attack – and strikes one of the coalitions’ ships.
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